The Falcoholic
It seems like a worthwhile thing to do, but whether Atlanta can and will make a big swing is an open question.
The Atlanta Falcons have one of the league’s most inept pass rushes yet again. I know you’re stunned.
Per Pro Football Reference, the team is 21st in hurries, 25th in quarterback hits, and somehow tied for 9th in knockdowns, but also dead last in the league in sacks with 6 and 27th in pressure rate. Pro Football Focus has Atlanta with the second-lowest pass rushing grade in the NFL, ESPN has them 25th in pass rush win rate, and we have been despairing at the number of unproductive plays and just-missed sacks. It’s a mess, and combined with a poor run defense, it has been drastically increasing the degree of difficulty for the Falcons.
Aaron Freeman has written about potential changes to Jimmy Lake’s scheme to help this pass rush and Tre’Shon Diaz has tackled their run defense, but even if Lake puts on his robe and wizard hat and conjures up some magic, the Falcons could still use personnel help. As Evan Birchfield noted on Twitter the other day, three of Atlanta’s five edge rusher options are in the bottom 30 players in the position group in PFF’s pass rushing ranks. Among defensive linemen, PFF lists Grady Jarrett as the top generator of pressures for Atlanta, and he’s tied for 33rd in that position grouping. This is grim stuff.
The obvious question with the trade deadline looming is this: Will the Falcons attempt to fix this with a trade?
The Athletic lists the Falcons as an obvious buyer, and the pass rush is the first thing beat writer Josh Kendall thinks of. I consider Atlanta a virtual lock to acquire somebody to add to that edge group, with the defensive line already stocked with players the Falcons either A) expect to improve or B) have yet to really involve, like Brandon Dorlus and Zach Harrison.
A huge name seems unlikely, and the reason is draft capital. The Falcons are trying to walk a wire of contending now and remaining a contender when Michael Penix takes over, but to do that without premium cap space, you need to have draft capital to re-tool your roster and rebuild an offensive line that will be flipping responsibilities with the left-handed Penix. Giving up multiple first round picks or a first and other early round selections and paying through the nose for a Maxx Crosby or Myles Garrett is an all-in-for-2024 and 2025 move, and the Falcons haven’t quite indicated they’re there yet.
A secondary reason is the cap. Atlanta can and will do a lot between now and next year, but they’re currently lining up to have just $11.6 million in space, per Over The Cap. An elite edge rusher would be worth the inevitable roster reshuffling and would be a nice foundational piece for both today’s defense and tomorrow’s, however, so I do view the finances as being a...
