Windy City Gridiron
Chicago’s offensive rebuild is going well, but the harsh reality is that the job is still incomplete.
At the moment, Chicago’s wide receiver room looks solid. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore provide an excellent pair of targets, and they might combine for 20 targets a game if Allen stays true to form and Moore has a slightly elevated usage rate compared to their last couple of years. Sticking with the same averages, Kmet and Everett should be good for the 8 targets per game that would represent the peak TE usage rate under Shane Waldron’s offenses with the Seattle Seahawks. Likewise, D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert should be able to manage the 5 receiving targets per game asked of running backs in the system. Throw in two targets per game for Tyler Scott and/or Velus Jones, which might be too many, and the team is at 35 targets per game.
Wow. That’s an average modern offense!
But what about the five games per season that Keenan Allen would miss if he stays true to form over the last two seasons, there, as well? Well, somebody else would need to pick up those 50 targets, obviously. What if Chicago were to have an above-average passing offense and aim for 37 targets per game? Well, now there would need to be someone to pick up another 35 targets, and there’s a void of 85 targets in the season. Add in that Keenan Allen’s contract expires after 2024, and Chicago probably needs a receiver in the draft.
Fortunately, this is supposedly a deep receiver draft. That’s true, up to a point. However, this is a very lopsided draft. There’s far more talent on offense than on defense, especially at wide receiver and offensive tackle. However, that does not mean that there will be talented prospects at wide receiver there for Chicago if they wait until Pick #75. The reason is that while the offensive talent is deep, the defensive talent is shallow. That means that most teams likely will be drafting offense before defense. Here’s the situation Chicago faces.
The First-rounders
Here are the players who are considered to be clear first-round talents by a majority of evaluators. If some team doesn’t grab one of them before Thursday night is over, it would be a surprise:
A few of these players might be available at #9, but they’ll be gone before Friday morning unless something goes wrong.
The Other Top 50
These are the wide receivers who by consensus are still placed in the Top 50 of the eligible draft candidates. There’s some individual disagreements here or there, but these are well-regarded players who would almost certainly be gone by the end of the second round (i.e. 64 picks in) if even half of the available GMs stick to the “best player available” mentality that is espoused so often.
