Gang Green Nation
As draft day nears the Jets’ first round pick options come into focus
ESPN recently released their draft simulator which is meant to project the likelihood in which players are taken with specific picks. Per ESPN’s release, “The model uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to estimate the chance every prospect is taken at each pick. Chances are then calculated based on recent historical accuracy of the combination of the above info, including the chance of a trade.”
One of the features of the model is that you can see who the likely players are at each pick. Given that the New York Jets pick at 10, we can go ahead and assume that the results for pick 10 are largely based on who the Jets are likely to take. So what does it say (as of April 13th)?
Overall, the model seems to align with what typical mocks see, with the Jets taking Brock Bowers, a wide receiver, or an offensive tackle. The model also projects some edge rushers and cornerbacks, which I would presume would be scenarios where the Jets trade up or down in the draft, leaving another team with the 10th pick.
Beyond that, the simulator also projects the likelihood of which players will be available. Of note, the model seems extremely confident that offensive tackles Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham, and Olumuyiwa Fashanu will be available, with available likelihoods that are essentially 100%. Given the Jets needs at tackle, this is a welcome takeaway.
Beyond that, the model also seems reasonably confident Bowers will make it to 10, with about a 75% likelihood. By comparison, the model is a bit less optimistic that players such as Rome Odunze or Joe Alt will be available, with likelihoods of about 20% and 10%, respectively. This would imply the model expects the Jets would take either if they were available, given they were still well represented on the selection likelihoods for pick 10.
