Battle Red Blog
What does history tell us about year two?
Teams can add free agents and new rookies all they want, but free agency hardly ever throws a team over the top. Obviously, we saw last season that new rookies can pay immediate dividends when it comes to a team making a huge jump in the standings. Arguably though, the number one factor in teams getting better is when existing players take the next step in their development.
This is the main reason why we wait three or four years before evaluating a draft. Players like Nico Collins don’t necessarily produce right away. Moreover, the 2023 season story can’t be told without those guys. Players like Collins and Derek Stingley Jr. took huge steps forward. In order for the Houston Texans to take the next step they will need someone that has already been on the roster to take that next step in development. Ideally, they will need several of those guys.
The normal course for rookie quarterbacks is to struggle and then develop over time. Plus, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love had to sit for a few years before getting their opportunity. Yet, there have been numerous quarterbacks currently active that were good from jump.
Did they take the next step in year two? The working hypothesis would naturally point to progression. Certainly, I’m sure their coaches would all agree they did progress and I have no reason to dispute their claim. Still, we are looking at statistical progression. We obviously have the forces of improvement that are directly opposed to opposing defenses figuring guys out. We need to see which side is right before projecting Stroud’s second year.
Any time you set up an experiment you have to set some ground rules before crunching the data. In my head, I never know what I’m going to find before searching it out. If I did then I could tailor the experiment to get the results that I want. I want genuine results and not ones I manufacture.
I found eight starting quarterbacks that had quarterback ratings of 90 or above in their first full season as a starter. So, I simply took that player’s passing yards per game, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. We are simply comparing the aggregate year one with the aggregate year two. Did these quarterbacks see actual statistical improvement?
Year One: 236.5 YPG, 6.6 TD%, 1.9 INT%, 65.4 PCT, 104.0 RTG
Year Two: 252.7 YPG, 5.9 TD%, 2.1 INT%, 65.2 PCT, 100.9 RTG
C.J. Stroud: 273.9 YPG, 4.6 TD%, 1.0 INT%, 63.9 PCT, 100.8 RTG
We see two undeniable facts here. First, what Stroud did last year was relatively rare but not unprecedented. He exists fairly comfortably with this group of eight quarterbacks. Guys like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Tua Tagovailoa did not qualify because they didn’t get to a 90 rating in their first year. Obviously Josh Allen and Derek Carr didn’t get...
