Arrowhead Pride
Let’s see how Kansas City’s postseason possibilities line up following Week 12’s NFL action.
The Kansas City Chiefs now stand 10-1 after collecting a 30-77 victory over the Carolina Panthers.
Six weeks remain in the 2024 NFL season, in which Kansas City will return home for their second division games versus the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, play the Cleveland Browns in Ohio, face the Houston Texans at home and finish the season on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Broncos.
Let’s take a look at the team’s current playoff picture. As we always do, we’ll use the New York Times playoff calculator to help us figure out what to expect. More details about how it works are included at the end of the article.
As it stands right now Kansas City has a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs, a 96% chance to win the AFC West (up from 90% two weeks ago), a 57% chance to win the single AFC bye (up from 46%) and a 11% chance to win Super Bowl LIX (up from 10%). In the AFC, the Bills now have the best chance to win the Super Bowl (15%). In the NFC, the Detroit Lions (23%) have the best chance.
These changes in Kansas City’s playoff outlook happened because in Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Panthers, the Cleveland Browns beat the Steelers, the Texans lost to the Tennessee Titans and the Baltimore Ravens took down the Chargers. It would have been helpful for the Raiders to beat the Broncos, too... but you can’t have everything.
The playoff calculator allows us to manipulate the outcomes of any remaining games to see how it changes things.
It’s still too early to describe a clear clinching scenario for the Chiefs. But the chance that Kansas City will miss the playoffs is virtually non-existent. Consider this: the Chiefs could lose the last six games of the season and still have a 91% chance to make the postseason!
Now that the Ravens have seen fit to defeat the Chargers on “Monday Night Football,” the Chiefs only need to defeat the Raiders this Friday and the Chargers a week from Sunday. That should lock up Kansas City’s ninth consecutive division title.
Kansas City still controls its destiny. The team can clinch the AFC’s top seed by winning the next six games, giving it a 16-1 record. That would be the best regular-season record in franchise history.
The team could also win the No. 1 seed by winning the next five matchups — as long as the Bills collect at least one loss against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Lions, New England Patriots or New York Jets. That would allow Kansas City to take it easy in Week 18 against Denver.
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