Buffalo Rumblings
They have four games against good teams plus a bye
The Buffalo Bills have a good run defense. Or they have a bad run defense. Or their run defense is just okay. I suppose it depends on who you ask.
The Buffalo Bills are off to their best start through 10 games since the 1990s. They’re sitting at 8-2 after a 30-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts on the road, and have a commanding lead in the AFC East. They’ve won five straight games after losing back-to-back contests against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans earlier this season.
It’s those two games against AFC projected playoff teams, however, that will really give some members of Bills Mafia some trepidation as they look tabard to the next four regular-season games for their beloved Bills. And specifically, the next four games may help provide clarity to a particularly well-discussed topic for Bills fans: whether or not the team has a run defense problem or not.
Buffalo faces the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, without rookie Keon Coleman and potentially without top target Amari Cooper. They then go on a bye, which could see them return both receivers to health. After, they get to stay home for a game against the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, who have just gotten all-world running back Christian McCaffrey back from injury. Continuing the NFC West trend, the newly (somewhat) rejuvenated Los Angeles Rams host the Bills on December 8 with Los Angeles’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from early season injuries along with a finally-getting-healthy offensive line. The Bills finish this four-game sled with potentially the best team in the NFC in the Detroit Lions, whose style has given the Bills problems with their physical running.
That’s a doozy of a stretch for Buffalo. One that could end with a 12-2 record and potentially the one or two seed in the AFC, and simultaneously one that could end in a 8-6 record and people calling for the firing of head coach Sean McDermott al la post-Denver game in 2023.
One thing is for sure though. Regardless of record after this four game run, we’ll have a lot more data than we currently do regarding the Buffalo Bills’ run defense, which has been a hot topic of late.
In terms of rushing EPA given up in total and rushing success rate against, the Bills actually rank highly in the league. Buffalo ranks seventh-best in the NFL in rushing success rate against and 11th-best in the NFL in total rushing EPA against.
This has contributed to the Bills’ defense being 10th in the NFL in EPA per play against.
But the counting stats look a little different. The Bills are 15th in the NFL in rushing yards against at 123.2 per game, but they’ve given up 10 rushes of 20 yards or more, which is tied for fifth-worst in the league. This distinction contributes...
