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The Vikings are likely to wind up with one of a handful of promising but flawed QB prospects. Let’s meet them.
There are six quarterbacks who may go in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and I like them all. I think that if any of the six land in the right situation, they can be good NFL quarterbacks, and I would have ranked any of them as the second-best quarterback in last year’s draft after C.J. Stroud.
That said, all of them carry some degree of risk, and “the right situation” is different for everyone (woe to whoever lands with Kliff Kingsbury in Washington). I think the issues with three of them — Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix — can be boiled down to a few quick paragraphs, so let’s do that. All of them have some degree of likelihood to wind up on the Vikings or Lions, after all. As always, the QBOPS Draft Sheet can be seen here, and the Glossary, here.
2023 Stats: 236/327 (72.2%), 3812, 16.2 Y/C, 40 TDs, 4 INT, 1134 Yards Rushing, 8.4 Y/R, 10 TDs
2023 QBOPS/QWOBA+: .426/.791/1.217, 139
First, the immense positive: Daniels had, by any metrics, one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had. He’s an incredible deep passer, he possesses good arm talent, and he has performed on some of the biggest stages against very difficult defenses. My first comparison for Daniels before digging into everything was a sort of more mobile Joe Burrow. Burrow also underwent a meteoric rise in his final season at LSU, and Burrow’s one major flaw – a propensity to take too many sacks – is shared by Daniels. But, as usual, the devil is in the details, and difference between Burrow and Daniels is as important as the similarities.
The 6-3, 221-pound Burrow has been in the NFL for four seasons, and when he’s been on the field, he’s been excellent. It is staying on the field that has been an issue, as the Bengals have featured haphazard offensive lines during most of his tenure and the man is prone to taking shots.
Back in 2019, Burrow was PFF’s highest-rated college passer with a 94.1 mark. In second was then-Ohio State and now-former Bears quarterback Justin Fields, with a 92.4 grade. Burrow was sacked on 19.1% of his pressures in 2019 (an improvement from the 25.7 P/S rate the previous year). Fields was sacked on 22.1% of his pressures, a number which would increase to an alarming 25% in his final 2020 season, and while there are many differences between Fields and Burrow, this really is the big one. Burrow and Fields are both big game hunters, but Burrow’s clock is faster, and he’s able to make better throws under pressure as a result.
And so, the question really becomes whether Daniels is more like Burrow, or Fields, and I’m sorry to say that I find myself landing on Fields more than...
