Bleeding Green Nation
Are you going to gamble on the game?
Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].
What is the line telling you:
The market opened with the Eagles originally as a 3.5-point home favorites, with the combined total set at 50. Since then, the side has fluctuated from Philly minus-3, back up to minus-3.5, where it currently stands. The total has seen a down tick in the market to 48.5. There is some sharp money on under-50. When we compare the betting slips with my friends offshore and in Las Vegas, as of right now, it is basically a 50-50 split on all tickets placed and money wagered. The public money is evenly divided. When handicapped this matchup, I believe the Commanders have the edge in coaching, with Dan Quinn over the Eagles’ Nick Sirianni, and at the quarterback position. Even though Jayden Daniels is a rookie, he has played just as well, if not better than Jalen Hurts this season. I do give the Eagles the edge in overall talent on the field. On offense, the edge goes to Washington, which is No. 4 overall in the yards-per-play metric, compared to the Eagles, who are No. 10. On the defensive side, the Eagles have a much bigger edge. They are ranked No. 2 overall in opponent-yards-per-play, while the Commanders are ranked No. 21 in the NFL. When we compare common opponents, surprisingly, the Eagles and Commanders lost by 17 points to the Buccaneers, while the Eagles struggled against the Browns at home, and Washington beat Cleveland handily by three touchdowns. Philly crushed the New York Giants, while Washington squeezed out two victories over the G-Men by a combined eight points.
Bottom line:
I think the Eagles are a slightly better overall team than Washington and will eventually win the NFC East. But this is a market, and the current price with a divisional game on a short week, with not much travel involved, I like the Commanders here plus-3.5 points. The Eagles have a nice five-game winning streak heading into Thursday night, but if you look at the opponents that they have played in that time span, the Browns, Jags, Cowboys, Bengals and Giants, those teams have a combined record of 13-35 record on the season. The Commanders plus-3.5 is the bet.
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown, plus-105
Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown, plus-105
Jalen Hurts over 223.5 passing yards
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
