Should the Minnesota Vikings start JJ McCarthy in week one?
As we wait for any news we are left to wonder/speculate about position battles and the best course of action the team should take. For example, should the team start JJ McCarthy? Sam Darnold is getting 10M this year which is a lot but it is not too much and probably will prove worth the investment. There are many articles out there that discuss starting or sitting a rookie QB with a lot of them having a ton of nerd stats to confuse.
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What the Last 20 Years Teach Us About How Rookie QB Seasons Predict Future Success
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/9/30/22700483/rookie-quarterback-first-start-development-timeline
Will a team be better with its talented but undeveloped rookie or its reliable but unspectacular veteran? Some think throwing quarterbacks in before they’re ready can ruin their psyches; others think the best way for QBs to learn is to make mistakes and grow from them.
You can make all sorts of arguments about the best approach with rookie QBs. Peyton Manning got to start immediately in Indianapolis after being picked first overall in 1998. Those Colts went 3-13 as Manning threw 28 interceptions, which remains the record for most interceptions by a rookie. Eventually, though, he figured things out and became one of the game’s all-time greats. In 2014, Manning told Peter King that the game slowed down for him during his rookie season, and that he feels playing as a rookie is “the best way to learn” for young quarterbacks.
So what can we learn from this exercise? After reviewing the data, I have three primary takeaways.
1. The most successful strategy, oddly, is using players in small roles before eventually naming them starters.
Data Supports The Idea Of Giving Rookie Quarterbacks Time To Develop
While the sample size of 30 QBs could be affected by outliers, there does seem to be a trend of QBs who are able to sit for at least four games outperforming those who start right away.
History of NFL QBs waiting to start: Here’s what stats since 2000 say about when they’ll most likely succeed
In almost every category, the group of players that took over in Year 3 performed the best, while the players who became starters in the second half of their rookie season performed the worst. Of course, these results are subject to all sorts of small-sample size concerns.
I am not sure if there is a right or wrong answer. I think the Vikings are taking the best approach and will let it happen organically. We all know that JJ McCarty will eventually be the starting QB for the Minnesota Vikings. They should give him at least 30 starts or more before making any long term decision on his future.
It is really an exciting time to be a fan of the Minnesota Vikings.
[NFL Rumors: Vikings Haven’t Ruled Out J.J. McCarthy Being QB1 over Sam Darnold Week...
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