Buffalo Rumblings
NFL MVP odds have shifted and Josh Allen is the new frontrunner.
The NFL’s betting markets have had Lamar Jackson in the lead for MVP betting recently and before that, Patrick Mahomes started the year ahead of everyone. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was always in the conversation, but never leading. That is until this week, when Allen has become the new betting favorite for NFL MVP.
Per Fanduel, Allen has moved into the lead at +270 while Jackson has slipped to +370 and Mahomes +500.
Over the past decade or so, the NFL MVP has been the best quarterback on a team with one of the best records in the league. The more touchdowns you score, the better your chances and the more turnover you have, the worst your chances.
Lamar Jackson slipped out of first in the MVP betting odds because the Baltimore Ravens lost again this week, knocking them to 5-3. They’re a game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in their own division and are sixth in the AFC right now.
For Patrick Mahomes, his team may be undefeated but he’s not playing well this year. Mahomes is tied for third in the NFL with nine turnovers behind only Gardner Minshew and Will Levis. He’s also first in the NFL with nine interceptions on the year. Couple that with him scoring only nine touchdowns, and he’s far off the pace set by the league’s leaders.
Josh Allen leads the league in touchdown to turnover ratio, at +14. Despite a high percentage of turnover-worthy plays, Allen has been very careful with the ball on paper. He has one interception and two lost fumbles, so only three turnovers on the season. The knock against Allen was always the turnovers, so if he shows votes in the Associated Press that he has that under control, they are likely to reward him with more MVP votes than ever before.
Couple Allen’s performance with the Bills winning a bunch of games, and he is the clear frontrunner. At 6-2, the Bills are going to clinch the AFC East early and be in contention for one of the top seeds in the AFC as a result.
Over in the NFC, the top team is the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff is certainly in the MVP conversation. He has 14 total touchdowns and four interceptions to be +10 in touchdowns to turnovers and his offense has been incredibly efficient. His lack of flash and high-visibility plays is working against him, but if he can remain consistently great throughout the season, he will certainly have a case.
Elsewhere in the NFC, despite a fast start the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold have fallen off while the San Francisco 49ers are 4-4 and currently 10th in the conference, knocking down Brock Purdy’s chances. It would be tough to see rookie Jayden Daniels stay consistent enough...
