Gang Green Nation
How have things changed for the top offensive tackles in the draft over the last nine months?
The New York Jets have been linked to offensive tackles since last season when their offensive line was struggling. At the time, the prize tackle was often seen as Olumuyiwa Fashanu from Penn State, with many going as far as hoping the Jets would “tank” in order to make sure they could get him.
Now though? Fashanu appears not only to be relatively likely to make it the Jets at pick 10, but he also seems to be a dark horse candidate to be taken at 10 even if he is there.
While a whole article could be dedicated to discussing where that change in perception for Fashanu comes from, I instead want to use this as a chance to highlight the ebbs and the flows of a prospect’s draft evaluation. Specifically, the Jets are apparently in the market for a tackle at 10 with many options being discussed. However, the way those players landed themselves in the mock draft range around pick 10 is quite varied as shown by Grinding The Mocks.
As shown here, the draft stock changes for Joe Alt, Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham and Troy Fautanu are quite different. While Fashanu was once OT1, he has since fallen into nearly a dead tie with Talise Fuaga for OT3 following a dropoff in his draft stock after the season concluded. By comparison, Fauga and Fautanu have seen a significant jump in their draft stocks since last summer when they were each mocked in round 2.
By no means is this a hard and fast rule, but I tend to find that players who have sudden falls in draft stock after the season ends outperform their draft stock. Four time Pro Bowl offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr is a great example of that after going from a first round pick to a third round pick following a draft season showing that was perceived as poor.
Based on that idea, Fashanu seems like a guy who could make teams regret passing on him given the dip in his draft stock that has been seen in recent weeks. If that’s the case, then hopefully the Jets are the beneficiaries of his declining draft stock.
