Big Blue View
The New York Giants travel to Munich, Germany this weekend to play the Carolina Panthers in a Week 10 battle between two teams that are 2-7. The Giants are favored by 6.5 points, and the Over/Under is a low 40.5 points.
The Giants lost 27-22 against the Washington Commanders in Week 9; the Panthers picked up their second victory last week after defeating the New Orleans Saints 23-22, which prompted the Saints to fire their head coach. Second-year quarterback and former first-overall pick Bryce Young returned to the starting lineup last week for Carolina and is set to start against the Giants.
The Carolina Panthers surrender the most points in the NFL, allowing 32.6 points per game. Their defense has only allowed less than 25 points twice this season—both of their wins (Week 3 in Las Vegas against the Raiders is their other win, 36-22). New York has only scored over 25 points once this season (Week 5 against Seattle, 29-20).
Carolina has the 28th-ranked red zone defense, allowing 69.23% of touchdowns in the red zone. The Giants have the worst red zone offense in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 40% of red zone trips. For reference, the 2021 New York Giants finished dead last in red zone touchdown percentage — they scored on 44.75% of trips.
The Panthers have the worst third-down conversion rate in the NFL. Their defense allows a conversion on 48.31% of third-down attempts. The Giants rank 22nd on offense in third-down percentage, with an average of 36.22%.
Carolina is also dead last in yards allowed per game. They allow 391.9 yards per game and have allowed 416 YPG over the previous three weeks. The Panthers allow the 29th most plays run per game — an average of 66.1. The Giants’ offense ranks in the top 10 of plays run in the NFL; New York runs 64.3 plays in a game, ranking them eighth overall.
Stopping the run is the primary issue with the Carolina Panthers; an inept offense compounds this problem, for Carolina’s opponents typically run out the clock in the second half. Still, the Panthers’ defense is Swiss cheese on the ground, allowing 159.3 rushing yards per game and the 25th-most passing yards per game, averaging 232.6.
Ejiro Evero is the Panthers’ defensive coordinator. He is a disciple of Vic Fangio and runs a lot of base 3-4 and 3-3-5. The ‘base’ 3-4 turns into a four-man front with a linebacker on the line of scrimmage, and Evero will also often use TITE fronts.
The injuries and lack of depth have restricted Evero’s defense. According to NFL Next Gen, The Panthers have used a base defense (4 defensive backs) at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (39.2%). They have allowed just 5.0 yards per play in base defense this season, 16th-most in the NFL and 1.5 yards fewer than when they are in any other personnel grouping.
The Panther's 6.5 yards per play allowed when...
