Geno Smith is getting blitzed less, and the Seahawks offense is struggling more

Ryan Grubb has a big problem on his hands if the Seahawks cannot beat standard four man rushes.

The Seattle Seahawks have a hidden issue on offense that’s related to the offensive line, but not exclusively.

Remember how heavily Geno Smith would get blitzed at the start of the season? Vance Joseph’s Denver Broncos defense blitzed Geno on half of his dropbacks, and other than the bad start to the game, Smith generally handled it well. Smith shredded the New England Patriots, who blitzed him more than 35% of his dropbacks.

Well the blitzing has steadily dropped, and with it, the Seahawks passing offense has not been as effective.

Over the last four games, Geno Smith has been blitzed significantly less than in the first four games. The New York Giants sacked Smith seven times, but the other three teams only managed one sack. Outside of the Giants game, Smith is getting sacked less, he’s getting more time to throw—three of the four games in question doubled as his longest average TtT—and the passing offense has gotten worse.

Geno Smith’s EPA/play (via Rbsdm.com)

Weeks 1-4: 11th
Weeks 5-8: 22nd

Interestingly enough, Geno has a slightly higher EPA/play this season when blitzed vs. not blitzed, which is the opposite of his previous two full seasons as a Seahawks starter and the three games and fourth quarter he played in 2021. I don’t think Smith suddenly forgot how to play football against a standard four-man rush.

This is what I wrote on my personal social media account after the Lions game:

Geno Smith has been blitzed at the 6th highest rate this season among all QBs who’ve started every game (per @NextGenStats).

37/53 for 444 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. One of the few QBs with a positive EPA/dropback.

And then again after the 49ers and Giants losses:

The 49ers only blitzed Geno Smith five times out of 50+ dropbacks.

The Giants only blitzed about 22% of the time the week prior.

Think the book might be out on this passing offense.

But then the Bills game happened, sans DK Metcalf, and I think we’ve got a real problem on our hands.

Smith has gone from one of the most blitzed QBs to one of the least. The Seahawks passing game is languishing, and they haven’t been a good running team regardless of whether they’re facing blitz-heavy defenses or not.

As I see it, there are two issues with the Seahawks passing offense, independent of the running game struggles:

• The offensive line already can’t deal with four-man pressures very well. Smith is pressured at a slightly above-average rate when not blitzed, and above-average when blitzed. This is not a good pass-blocking unit and unless you have a dismal pass rush like Atlanta, you’ll take your chances that you can win with four and drop the rest into coverage. In the case of the Giants, Dexter Lawrence is a one-man interior blitz. -...