Crossing Broad
Everything is going right for the Philadelphia Eagles at the moment. The Birds are on a five-game winning streak and enter Thursday night’s NFC East battle with the Washington Commanders as a four-point favorite. They are already on top of the division by a half-game and a win on Thursday would put them 1.5 games up with a head-to-head win over Washington. It’s no surprise that the Eagles are -210 on New Jersey sports betting apps to win the NFC East because of what is front of them on Thursday .
The cornerstones of the winning run have been a strong defense, a high-flying offense and stars showing up in big spots. Jalen Hurts and Co. have scored at least 28 points in the last four games, and while you would think that would lead to a run of over bets hitting, the Birds are only 2-3 to the over during the winning run.
Thursday’s over/under sits at 49, and if it holds at that number, it would be the third highest total for an Eagles games this season. No game has closed with a total of 50. They are 1-1 to the over in the two games that closed at 49.5. Washington’s been more of an over team this season with a 7-3 mark to the over, but like the Birds, the Commanders are 1-1 to the over when the total closed at 49 points or higher.
So, yes, there will be points scored inside Lincoln Financial Field, but that doesn’t automatically equate to the over hitting.
The biggest weakness to exploit on either side is Washington’s passing defense, which has allowed the third-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers and 1,423 yards to wide outs. Enter A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and oh by the way if you’re into these things, Smith turns 26 on Thursday. He’s got far lower props than Brown. Smith is listed at over/under 53.5 receiving yards, while Brown is at over/under 82.5 yards. Smith is +160 (DK) and +210 (FD) to score, while Brown has the third-lowest odds to score behind Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Smith has had at least 60 receiving yards in every Eagles home game and he’s only failed to hit the 60-yard mark on two occasions. Brown has had at least 80 receiving yards in five of his six games this season, so I would look to try and pair Brown and Smith in some type of parlay.
Obviously, Saquon Barkley will be a popular pick, but his rushing-yard prop is all the way up to over/under 92.5 yards. I’d be more inclined to bet him to score, especially if the Eagles air it out.
I’d look into a combination of Brown and Smith’s receiving yards with Hurts to have 25+ rushing yards and a Barkley touchdown. Brown 70+, Smith 50+ and the two other options pays out at +438 on FD. If you go up 10 yards on Brown and Smith, it gets you to +732.
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