Hogs Haven
A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders
Even now, here’s how [Jayden] Daniels’ rookie year stacks up with all rookie quarterback seasons since 2010: second in success rate, sixth in EPA per dropback, seventh in first-down/touchdown rate and fifth in Total QBR. Only Dak Prescott was better by success rate, while Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Justin Herbert were the five better in EPA. The numbers are telling us that Daniels is going to be a good QB in this league for as long as he stays healthy.
And so is the film. Daniels’ elusiveness and acceleration are well known and need no demonstrations, and at LSU, he threw a beautiful deep ball up against the sideline. But in the NFL, Daniels has shown an ability to throw receivers open in the middle of the field that was not often displayed during his time with the Tigers — and it has been critical to the success of the Washington passing game.
Also of critical note for Daniels’ success has been his poise. All three of Williams, Maye and Nix have had games this season in which the opposing defense has really gotten under their skin and frustrated them — if not for the full game, then at least on a key drive or two. That really hasn’t happened to Daniels, even in the Commanders’ losses. I’ve yet to see a moment become too big for him, and if the Commanders make the playoffs, that cool head will be a big help.
Independent of the injury, Daniels’ play has been electric, though not without its warts. Any quarterback scrambling 25.9% of the time when pressured, as Daniels is, will inevitably leave some plays on the field as he drops his eyes and looks to run. By the way, that 25.9% is the highest number for any QB since 2009, which is as far back as we have data — and second place is only 22.7% (Justin Fields in 2022). It isn’t inherently bad to default to scrambling when pressured, especially when you’re as impossibly fast as Daniels. But it is predictable and can leave meat on the bone.
The kid’s good, no two ways around it.
The report card: From a play-style perspective, Daniels is as billed. He’s great throwing vertically, cool in the pocket and devastating as a runner both on designed plays and outside of structure. There will need to be some maturation as NFL teams increasingly force him to win from the pocket, but given the talent he has shown as a thrower this season, it’s reasonable to expect him to grow with the game.
From an effectiveness standpoint, he’s levels above where most rookies are when they start in the NFL — and without a great supporting cast. Hopefully most of his recent downturn is the result of a...
