Hogs Haven
Survey results!!
This week’s results from the Reacts survey seem somewhat counter-intuitive at first, but with a bit of reflection, the thinking of Commanders fans who completed the survey becomes clear.
Just over half the fans responding to the survey here on Hogs Haven predict that the Eagles will win tonight’s matchup on Thursday Night Football, but a greater number — 58% — expect the Commanders to win the NFC East title.
A few factors are at work here.
Firstly, fans perceive that the Commanders roster is a bit beat up at the moment, and that traveling to Philadelphia on a short week favors the Eagles. Oddsmakers, who have installed Philly as 3.5-point favorites, appear to agree.
A second — but related — factor is Marshon Lattimore. Although he has never played for the Commanders, Adam Peters acquired the 4-time Pro Bowl cornerback in a trade last week just before the NFL’s trade deadline. Unfortunately, Lattimore is currently suffering from a hamstring injury and won’t be ready to play tonight. The general feeling is that when he gets on the field, his addition will be transformative for the Washington defense. If he were playing tonight, I suspect a number of fans would have been swayed to predict a Washington victory. The point is that, with him, Washington fans expect a huge improvement, which will not help the burgundy & gold win tonight, but should help the Commanders stack up victories in the final six games of the season.
A third factor is that the Eagles schedule has been even softer than Washington’s to this point in the season, and Philly’s schedule down the stretch is tougher than that of the Commanders. Let me put some numbers to that.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, both Washington and Philadelphia have 7 wins, but the Eagle’s nine opponents have had a weaker winning percentage than have Washington’s ten opponents:
Looking ahead, though, things will even out over the coming weeks. If you discount the two games that they play against each other, the winning percentages of remaining opponents (Weeks 12-18) are:
Aside from the Eagles, the only team on Washington’s remaining schedule that has a winning record is the 6-4 Falcons.
The Eagles, however, have to face the 7-3 Ravens, the 7-2 Steelers, and travel to Los Angeles to play an unpredictable Rams team that is currently 4-5, but 3-1 in their last four games.
The feeling seems to be that Washington will make up some ground as the Eagles accumulate a couple of losses in the final 7 weeks, while Washington gets healthier with a Week 14 bye, gets stronger with the addition of Marshon Lattimore, picks up a...
