Buffalo Rumblings
Tight ends and running backs will rule the day
The Buffalo Bills are in Washington to take on the Seattle Seahawks, and there are question marks for both teams around the availability of some key players. The Bills are three-point favorites (-3) with a total set at 45.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Wide receiver DK Metcalf has been ruled out for Week 8, and Terel Bernard was ruled out earlier this week. Seattle loses their big-play threat but Buffalo essentially loses the middle of their defense — so how do the coaches adjust?
Seattle has the highest pass rate over expected in the NFL and the Bills seemingly invite the run, but I have a tough time seeing either team breaking away from their tendencies. The Bills also saw their first full week to get wide receiver Amari Cooper up to speed but it’s difficult to gauge what his usage will be after he saw just 18 snaps last week while hauling in four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.
In what could be the game of the weekend, I expect things to be a little simpler and more mundane than anticipated. Here are my favorite prop bets ahead of today’s game.
I was going to go with running back James Cook here (his line is 61.5 yards), but digging into the stats on Seattle’s defense and these Bills running backs made me switch. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has a new toy in Amari Cooper, but this offense has been balanced all season and that won’t change this week.
Seattle has a below-average run defense (10th worst in EPA) but their real Achilles heel comes after contact. The Seahawks are actually top 10 in yards allowed before contact (per attempt) but drop to second-worst in yards allowed after contact.
Running back Ray Davis averages half a yard more after contact than James Cook and has averaged five carries a week outside of the New York Jets game where he was the main back. With his bowling ball-like body and ability to push defenders backwards, you may not even need five carries for this to hit.
Moving over to the Seahawks’ offense, they have a large (and fast) hole to fill without DK Metcalf. While his absence opens up room for wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett to take on bigger roles, I think Fant gets a boost here more than anyone. Terrel Bernard missing for the Bills is huge and I think Seattle will target the middle of the field with him gone.
Fant has reached this mark in three games this year already and as I mentioned above, Seattle passes more than anyone in the league. With this game expected to be close, Fant will have ample opportunities.
Picking which receiver will score a touchdown on this team is akin to a game of minesweeper...
