Buffalo Rumblings
Breaking down the numbers to see how the Bills’ offense matches up against the Colts’ defense
As the Buffalo Bills (7-2) prepare to take on the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) in Week 10, this game should come down to the Bills’ offense taking care of business. Buffalo is riding high with one of the league's best passing offenses, but quarterback Josh Allen might be without key receivers, including Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman (who’s been ruled out).
The Colts’ defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses. Below, we’ll breakdown two key matchups to watch in this game: the Buffalo’s passing offense against the Indianapolis’ pass defense; and the Bills’ rushing offense against the Colts’ run defense. Additionally, we’ll look at a few keys to success for Buffalo on offense.
Buffalo has been a force through the air this season, ranking third in the NFL with +.19 EPA per pass. With Josh Allen taking an average of 2.79 seconds per pass attempt (eighth longest in the league), the Bills’ pass attack has thrived on intermediate and extended plays.
The Colts’ defense has significant vulnerabilities in this area, especially in defending throws where the quarterback has time to survey the field. When opponents take 2.5 seconds or longer to throw, the Colts give up 158.6 passing yards per game, which is the fifth-worst number in the NFL. The Colts also struggle when they don’t blitz, allowing 203.2 passing yards per game and ranking third-worst in sack percentage at just 4.2%.
Indianapolis’ pass defense is particularly susceptible to intermediate (10-19 yard) passes, where they allow +.65 EPA per pass and an average of 2.8 yards of separation — one of the league’s worst rates. This bodes well for the Bills, who rank third in the league in EPA per pass on intermediate throws at +.71. Expect Allen to target these intermediate zones, exploiting the Colts’ inability to close gaps and defend receivers downfield.
Indianapolis has one of the least blitz-heavy defenses in the league, doing so only 21.8% of the time (fifth lowest). However, blitzing or not, Buffalo has proven adept at producing under both conditions. When blitzed, the Bills are fourth-best in EPA per pass (+.30) and lead the NFL in touchdowns versus the blitz with 11. When not blitzed, they remain efficient, with a sixth-best EPA per pass of +.17.
The only caveat to this is the of course the Bills’ injuries at wide receiver. Again, Coleman is listed as OUT for this matchup, and Cooper is listed as questionable — which could affect Buffalo’s passing game in a big way. The Bills signed wide receiver Jalen Virgil to the 53-man roster and also elevated two wide receivers from the practice squad (Tyrell Shavers and K.J. Hamler) for today’s game. This doesn’t bode well for Cooper’s chance to play. If Cooper is out, expect the Bills to use more 12 personnel and get tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox involved more as...
