Buffalo Rumblings
Where do the Bills have the advantage?
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins face off again in Week 9, looking to rekindle their rivalry after Buffalo’s dominant 31-10 victory in Week 2. The Dolphins are coming off a close loss to the Arizona Cardinals that dropped them to 2-5 and third in the AFC East. The Bills hold a commanding lead in the AFC East with a record of 6-2, meaning this game is do-or-die for the Dolphins.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was injured during the third quarter in Week 2, made his return to the gridiron last week. Today’s game should be a tight division showdown, even though the two teams appear headed in very different directions.
To get us ready for this afternoon’s game at Highmark Stadium, here’s a breakdown of the key matchups to watch on both sides. All advanced stats below are via Next Gen Stats, courtesy of pro.nfl.com.
The Bills’ passing game has been a consistent powerhouse against the Dolphins, with quarterback Josh Allen posting a 110.0 passer rating in 13 regular-season games against Miami. He’s thrown 34 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in those 13 games. Allen has also been dominant on the ground, totaling 640 yards and five touchdowns in his regular-season career against the Dolphins. Miami’s pass defense ranks fifth in the NFL, allowing only 176.3 passing yards per game — though this may be influenced by teams focusing on the run when they have the lead.
The Dolphins’ pass rush has only snagged nine sacks this season, but they are second in the NFL in pressure rate at 40.5% — and they blitz frequently (30% of pass plays). However, opposing quarterbacks get plenty of time to throw as Miami allows an average of 2.93 seconds in the pocket, which is third-highest in the league. Injuries in the secondary, with starters Kader Kohou (nickel cornerback) and Javon Holland (safety) labeled as out and doubtful respectively, create even more vulnerabilities for Miami to try and mask.
Bills’ key to success: Ride Josh Allen to victory.
Buffalo’s rushing attack will face a Dolphins run defense that allows an NFL-worst 3.92 yards after contact. Funny enough, Miami is actually the best in the NFL at allowing just .51 yards before contact, which might be an indication that the Dolphins’ defense is loaded with poor tacklers. The Bills average 122.3 rushing yards per game, which is above average in the NFL, and they are an impressive top five in the NFL in EPA per rush at +.08. Buffalo finds success running the ball at a top-10 rate of 44.2% of the time.
Bills fullback Reggie Gilliam is out, which shouldn’t affect the team’s run game too much because they don’t often use him. When Buffalo needs an extra blocker, they usually bring swing offensive lineman Alec Anderson into the game.
Bills’ key to success: Running...
