Bills vs. Chiefs, Week 11: How to stop KC’s offense

Bills’ defensive keys to success defending against Mahomes & company

The best game of the 2024 season is upon us as the 8-2 Buffalo Bills welcome the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the NFL season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have the Chiefs’ offense flirting with top-10 numbers in numerous statistics, and they’re always a threat to post a big day through the air.

Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been as dominant as expected by Bills Mafia, but they have kept the ship afloat and are ready to get back on track as some key players have returned from injury. Here are five points of emphasis to hone in on for Kansas City’s offense and a key to success for Buffalo’s defense in defending against them. All of the advanced stats below are from NFL Pro unless noted otherwise.

Generate pressure without the blitz

Chiefs’ tendencies: Kansas City’s offensive line is one of the best in the NFL at protecting the quarterback. They allow a league-low pressure rate of just 28.3% and a sack rate of 6%, which are both top 10 in the NFL. Mahomes is also allotted the second-best time until pressure (2.92 seconds), giving him plenty of time to make decisions in the pocket. Blitzing him is usually a losing proposition as he ranks fourth-best in EPA/pass against the blitz (+.21) and the Chiefs’ offense is hard to rattle in those situations.

Bills’ key to success: Buffalo’s front four must step up to create pressure without sending extra rushers. Edge rusher Von Miller will be critical here as he continues returning to form but he also helps take pressure off sack leader Greg Rousseau. Defensive end A.J. Epenesa is putting together a nice season with five sacks so far, and it would be nice to see him add to that total on Sunday. Buffalo’s defensive tackles, including Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, must push the pocket from the interior and the edge players need to stay in sync with them to prevent Mahomes from stepping up or rolling out to extend plays. When the Bills do blitz, they have to be selective and calculated. Buffalo’s blitz packages have been highly effective, generating pressure on 49.3% of their blitzes (top 5) and leading the league in EPA/pass allowed when blitzing (-.51).

By relying on their base four-man pass rush, Buffalo can allocate more defenders to tighten up the passing lanes for Mahomes. Kansas City’s tackles are banged up and have had trouble protecting Mahomes the past two games, allowing eight sacks over that period. I would expect Buffalo’s edge rushers to come into this game grinning with excitement about getting Mahomes on the ground.

Take Away the Short Middle & Short Right of the Field

Chiefs’ tendencies: KC’s passing game thrives in the short areas of the field, particularly the middle and right. They’ve attempted 69 passes to the short middle (fourth-most) and 118 to the short right (fifth-most), with excellent...