Buffalo Rumblings
Disappointing or almost there?
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid came into the 2024 regular season with a decent amount of hype. After a good rookie season that saw him set franchise rookie tight end records for receptions to go along with 673 receiving yards, Kincaid was expected to rise into the ranks of elite tight ends in the league during his sophomore campaign.
When the Bills elected not to spend big money on a free-agent splash wide receiver signing and selected Keon Coleman in the second round of the NFL Draft, expectations for Kincaid to be the Bills’ leading receiver in a strong passing attack led by quarterback Josh Allen seemed warranted.
And Kincaid has been a solid contributor in 2024.
Coming off the Bills’ bye week, the former Utah product has 34 catches on 59 targets for 356 yards and two touchdowns. But these numbers are actually on pace for him to not reach the catch or receiving yards markers from 2023, which, regardless of additional weapons being asked and the team’s “everybody eats” mantra, can surely be considered a disappointment from a raw productivity standpoint.
So what’s going on? Were expectations set too high for the former first-round pick? Expectations minus reality equals disappointment, after all. Is Kincaid just not the player we thought he was? Is the offense not getting him involved enough?
I’m gonna Tarantino this article; I’m gonna hit you with the conclusion, and then I’ll go into how we arrived at that conclusion.
Kincaid is a good player. The Bills are currently throwing him the ball in the area of the field where Josh Allen is the weakest.
In 2023, one of the narratives surrounding Kincaid, specifically during the Ken Dorsey era, was that he was being used as an outlet receiver and there really wasn’t a plan for him down the field. Chip, run into the flat, make yourself available for a checkdown. That seemed to be the only plan.
Once Dorsey, the former Bills offensive coordinator now working with the Cleveland Browns, departed and Joe Brady took over, Kincaid saw his average depth of target increase as the year came to a close, famously winning deeper routes against the New England Patriots later in the year and showing the ability to make plays down the field. This led to a lot of the optimism surrounding Kincaid this past spring and summer.
Overall, in 2023, Dalton Kincaid received 12.2% of the team’s air yards. In 2024, that number has ballooned up to 20.2%. His 6.5 yard average distance of target has increased to 8.0. His routes are more down the field than they were in 2023. He’s 7th in the NFL in corner routes run by tight ends (14.5% of his routes).
But Josh Allen hasn’t been an overly effective down-the-field passer in 2024. Among quarterbacks with five or more attempts 20-plus yards...
