Buffalo Rumblings
Here’s how to profit off another AFC East matchup
The Buffalo Bills look to sweep the Miami Dolphins later today and, in the process, take an extremely firm hold on the AFC East. A win in Week 9 places them essentially five games ahead of the Dolphins and Jets halfway through the season.
At this point, I’m assuming wide receiver Amari Cooper won’t suit up as his props were unavailable at all major sportsbooks Saturday night. That’s bad sign the night before a 1 p.m. EST kickoff. The Bills are favored by 5.5 points and the total is fairly high at 49.5.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change
Allen hasn’t cleared this number in the last four games, but I think it’s a good week to get back on the wagon. Potentially without wide receivers Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel, Allen will have limited options against a division opponent that knows him well, which should give him more reason to improvise and scramble.
Allen has averaged 34 rushing yards in the team’s three most competitive outings (Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Houston Texans) and despite the recent history between these teams, this should be a close contest. I don’t hate taking Allen for a rushing TD either (+100) as he tries to vie for second-most rushing touchdowns in team history
One has to assume the Dolphins finally ease the pressure for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa against the Bills. Buffalo has pushed Tagovailoa to some of his worst career performances and he was knocked out in their Week 2 game while trying to scramble and do too much.
Achane is the weapon that exploits the Bills’ weakest group — their linebackers. He tallied 147 yards last week off 18 touches and assuming the Dolphins are smart, will be the focal point of their offense this afternoon. As odd as it may sound, Miami can’t afford to be forced to pass, so I believe Achane will see a healthy dose of carries early and in the event of a comeback situation. He provides a great check-down option against the Bills’ two-high safety coverages. Avoid picking rushing or receiving yards here and make it easier on yourself.
Tight end Dawson Knox has run 32 routes the last two weeks with Amari Cooper in the fold, accumulating five targets and three catches for 55 yards. Those are pretty modest numbers, but if Cooper (and Samuel) are out Knox moves up the ladder as a trusted target in the red zone.
Buffalo passes at the seventh-lowest rate inside the 20 but, in terms of value, I love Knox at 7:1 odds. Joe Brady loves to use two-plus-high-end packages near the goal line and I envision Knox slipping out from blocking to find himself wide open. This is a play I like contextually...
