Big Cat Country
Jaguars fans, who are you picking in tonight’s game between the Bengals and Chargers?
Sunday Night Football kicks off tonight at 8:20 p.m. EST as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium.
The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and the total is 47.5 points.
It’s a heavyweight battle between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. They were top-six picks in the 2020 NFL Draft and rank top-five in passer rating entering Sunday.
Burrow against the Chargers defense will be especially exciting to watch. L.A. has one of the best pass defenses by efficiency metrics, but they’ve also faced a weak schedule. Burrow tends to destroy zone coverage, which the Chargers deploy at a high rate.
This game seems like a toss-up so I’ll take the points with Cincinnati.
My favorite prop for tonight is J.K. Dobbins under 57 rushing yards. Via Ben Solak of ESPN:
The Bengals’ run defense was a laughingstock to start the season, but recent history shines far more favorably. Since Week 6, when starting defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill returned to the starting lineup, the Bengals are allowing only 3.4 yards per carry to opposing backs, with the sixth-best success rate in football. They’ve faced a couple of bad rushing attacks in that stretch, but they’ve also faced Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
I think the run defense is far improved in Cincinnati, and I think Dobbins is likely to see his total rush volume diminish now that [Gus] Edwards is back and with the Chargers facing a neutral game script in this one. Remember, since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers are seventh in pass rate over expectation. They run this offense through the air now.
This is now an open thread. Let us know your thoughts on Bengals vs Chargers in the comments below!
