Buffalo Rumblings
The Buffalo Bills’ path to victory against the winless Miami Dolphins wasn’t as easy as most people expected. What started as a potential rout fueled by Josh Allen’s early magic and a balanced attack, turned into a gritty, back-and-forth affair tied at 21 entering the fourth quarter. Miami’s shorthanded defense put up a great fight, forcing three punts in the second half, and their offense converted all three red-zone trips into touchdowns. However, a roughing-the-punter penalty on Zach Sieler extended a Bills drive, leading to Khalil Shakir’s go-ahead score. Then, as we all know now, came Terrel Bernard’s game-sealing interception of Tua Tagovailoa, which snuffed out Miami’s final threat.
With injuries mounting on both sides — Buffalo without defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano, Miami missing key secondary pieces — it was a matchup where vulnerabilities proved exploitable. Josh Allen wrote his name again in the record books, becoming the fastest player to 300 career touchdowns (including playoffs), but the defense’s third-down woes were back, allowing Miami to convert 10 of 15 attempts.
As the Bills prepare for the New Orleans Saints as the second matchup in a three-game homestand, let’s break down the players trending up and down after Week 3.
These three players stood out the most in a game that tested Buffalo’s depth, each delivering game-changing plays and furthering their cases as foundational pieces.
Kincaid showed why Bills’ fans have expected more from him since his rookie season. On Thursday, he was Buffalo’s go-to pass catcher, hauling in five receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown on eight targets against Miami. That was his third straight game with four-plus catches, which is a franchise first for a tight end.
Kincaid’s 20-yard score in the first quarter set the tone, exploiting a seam route against Miami’s depleted secondary, and he added a crucial third-down grab in the fourth to keep the game-winning drive alive. Through three weeks, Kincaid leads the Bills with 13 receptions for 151 yards and two TDs, outpacing Khalil Shakir in target share (20.3% vs. 18.1%).
Advanced metrics back the surge: Kincaid’s 84.2 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade ranks top-five among TEs, with a league-high 2.1 yards per route run (YPRR) in Weeks 1-3. Kincaid also had a +1.8 EPA on his TD grab, per Next Gen Stats. His 78% catch rate on contested balls (up from 62% in 2024) speaks to his being a player with great hands who also has Allen’s trust, as evidenced by a 15.2% air-yard share — the highest of his career.
In an offense craving reliability, Kincaid’s pass-catching ability (averaging 11.6 yards per catch) makes him incredibly valuable, especially with Dawson Knox rotating at just 45% snaps and struggling with some drops. The Bills need Kincaid to keep it up all season long to become a true mismatch inside, making life easier for wide receivers outside.
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