Will McClay said the Cowboys gave themselves about a 3% chance of Caleb Downs still being on the board when Dallas picked in the 2026 NFL Draft.
I had to listen to that statement a couple of times when I heard it because 3% is crazy low odds.
A lot of people have called Dallas lucky since draft night. I’ve heard it from Cowboys fans, and plenty of people in the media. After listening to Wil McClay explain what went on behind the scenes, I don’t think luck had much to do with it.
What stood out to me in the interview Voch Lombardi and Bryan Broadus had with Will McClay, on their Doin’ Alright podcast, wasn’t the Caleb Downs news, but everything the Cowboys had done before the draft started.
Will McClay admitted the Cowboys never expected Caleb Downs to make it to them.
“I remember one time looking… there was like a 3% chance.”
Three percent. Most people hear a number that low and figure there’s no reason to spend time on it. As we all know now, Dallas saw things differently.
McClay explained how his scouting department worked through every scenario before the draft weekend arrived.
“One of the things that I’m most proud about is the college scouts digging and doing the work… having the answerers and being prepared ahead of time.”
He would explain how him and the scouting department would go over these scenarios, so they would be ready when their pick rolled around. I like knowing this and hearing about what happens before the card gets turned in.
We rarely see the hundreds of conversations before that moment and when Downs kept sliding, the Cowboys weren’t having any debates for the first time. They’d already settled how it would work out weeks earlier.
Does luck play a part? Absolutely, but preparation is much better than luck.
Has football become scouts versus computers? Will McClay made it pretty clear that isn’t how Dallas operates.
“I believe my eyes. My computer’s here too. It’s trained.”
I like that answer because it shows that the Cowboys staff isn’t afraid of technology.
They watch the tape and trust their experience. Then they let the numbers challenge their thinking before another team does.
One of my favorite quotes from Will McClay builds off of the quote above:
“So, tell me where my blind spots are because we do have them. Point out the inconsistences, like we were talking about the draft and trends and those things. I think those things are important to be aware of and to let the decision-makers be aware of that and put that into their thought process when they make a decision.”
I don’t see that as someone who thinks he has football figured out. I think it’s someone trying to keep from making the same mistake twice.
I...
