Hogs Haven
The start of OTAs is always exciting as fans get their first full look at the team after free agency and the draft. In terms of real information, there is usually very little to be had, but occasionally useful nuggets may be gleaned from short clips and interviews. One such find came from JP Finlay’s OTA notes from the first open session and was provided by veteran tight end John Bates.
I spoke with veteran tight end John Bates after practice and asked him specifically about the TE role in the new offense. Bates explained tight ends will have a bigger role and expect to see multiple sets with multiple tight ends on the field. Maybe even 13 personnel like the Rams ran to great success last season. That’s exciting.
For those that don’t know, personnel groupings are represented by two digits. The first digit stands for the number of running backs and the second stands for the tight ends. The remainder out of 5 skill players represents the wide receivers, so 13 personnel is one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver.
The Commanders were not well known for this deployment last season. According to SumerSports, Kliff Kingsbury used the grouping on 5.5% of Washington’s plays. So why the excitement from the other JP? Sean McVay and the Rams used 13 personnel to great effect last season after Puka Nacua went out with an injury. In fact, the coach liked the results so much he kept using it after Puka returned to the lineup. Is it possible Commanders offensive coordinator David Blough and the Commanders could find the same success copying McVay’s model?
As luck would have it, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell examined this exact question in an article a few weeks ago. The writer looked at both the Rams usage and how it might apply to the rest of the league. The examination raised some interesting questions, along with providing some interesting answers.
For starters, how effective was Los Angeles with 13 personnel last year? According to Barnwell, very effective.
The Rams averaged 0.14 expected points added (EPA) per play last season, their best mark since 2018. Working out of 13 personnel, that jumped to 0.22 EPA per play. To put that in context, the only offenses since 2017 to average that much in terms of EPA per snap over a full season were the 2018 Chiefs and 2020 Packers. The 2007 Patriots, one of the greatest offenses in NFL history, averaged 0.24 EPA per play. The 13 personnel Rams weren’t far behind.
Clearly the Rams were successful when running 13 personnel. Seven-year veteran Colby Parkinson had a career year and set the Rams franchise record for most touchdowns by a tight end in a single season with eight. His previous career high for a season was two touchdowns. So why was 13 personnel so effective for Los Angeles? According to Barnwell, 13 personnel groupings require the defense to shift out of their preferred sub-packages,...
