Why the Seahawks’ 2024 red zone ‘success’ was misleading

The Seahawks’ red zone touchdown efficiency was respectable. They were a bad red zone offense.

Did you know that the Seattle Seahawks finished 14th in red zone efficiency under Ryan Grubb?

Bet that threw you for a loop.

Yes, the Seahawks’ outstanding finale against the Los Angeles Rams meant that Seattle finished in the top-half of the NFL in turning red zone trips into touchdowns. No one will tout 24 touchdowns out of 42 red zone possessions and a 14th-ranked RZ offense as great, but it was a clear improvement from the 26 out of 54 (48.1%) in 2023 and 27 out of 55 (47.3%) in 2022.

Or was it?

I’ve lost the audio but when I spoke with FTNFantasy’s Aaron Schatz, I suggested (and he agreed) that points per red zone drive paints a more accurate picture of a team’s overall RZ performance over just touchdown rate.

Here are some factors and scenarios to consider in “failed” red zone trips:

• Players deliberately falling down at the 1-yard line late in the game to set up game-clinching kneeldowns.
• Overtime possessions in which only a field goal is required to win (example: Seahawks vs. Patriots in 2024).
• Two-minute drills in which a field goal is more practical than a touchdown due to lack of time + timeouts.
• Drives in which the initial entry into the red zone doesn’t occur until 4th down, at which point a team kicks a field goal.

Now let’s get to the main point of the story. Here are the Seahawks’ red zone efficiency rates and rankings over the past five seasons.

(Stats via FTNFantasy)

Seahawks red zone efficiency (TD% only) + ranking

2020: 73.2% (4th)
2021: 64.6% (3rd)
2022: 47.3% (28th)
2023: 48.1% (25th)
2024: 57.1% (14th)

Those last two healthy Russell Wilson seasons look outstanding and way better than the last Super Bowl season (20th at 51.7%). All three Geno Smith seasons are mediocre at best.

Now let’s look at points per RZ trip.

Seahawks points per red zone drive + ranking

2020: 5.54 (5th)
2021: 5.23 (7th)
2022: 4.73 (17th)
2023: 4.62 (20th)
2024: 4.65 (22nd)

The RZ efficiency and points per RZ trip are great for 2020 and 2021 and correlate well. There are definitely sizeable gaps for the 2022 and 2024 teams.

What’s the deal with those 2022 and 2024 Seahawks red zone teams?

The 2022 Seahawks kicked a shit ton of field goals in lieu of a high touchdown rate. Jason Myers attempted and made 22 red zone field goals, second most in the NFL. What Seattle didn’t do was turn it over; the only giveaways were a Geno Smith lost fumble versus the Buccaneers and the DeeJay Dallas nonsense interception against the 49ers. Seattle’s touchdown percentage was not good, but the overall points per red zone trip was average just on the ability to consistently come away with at least three.

The 2024 Seahawks were a bad red zone offense. Geno Smith threw...