Niners Nation
Yes, you read the headline correctly. The much-maligned 49ers defense, which was gashed on the ground over and over by the Seattle Seahawks and gave up back-breaking third-down conversions, has a better chance on Sunday against the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles.
I understand. The Eagles have one of the best running backs in the NFL, paired with a top running quarterback. The 49ers are down to their final linebackers on the roster and added Kyzir White to the practice squad as insurance for injuries. The 49ers also missed 18 tackles on Saturday against Seattle. Philadelphia boasts one of the more impressive skill-position groups in the NFL, featuring Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
So, what is with the optimism for Sunday? Well, I’m not bullish on the 49ers’ defense. I’m just familiar with the scuffling Eagles’ offense and how a combination of play-calling, execution, and overall efficiency will keep the 49ers’ defense in position to give the offense a chance.
Heading into Sunday, the Eagles rank 22nd in the NFL in success rate at 42.38%. For comparison, Philadelphia ranks behind the Washington Commanders (11th), Kansas City (15th), Atlanta (18th), Arizona (19th), and Carolina (21st).
The once vaunted rushing attack with Barkley and Hurts ranks 16th in EPA/rush. Facing the Buffalo Bills (31st in rush defense), Barkley finished with less than 70 yards. In that same game, Hurts threw for zero passing yards in the second half for the second time on the season (both wins for Philadelphia, somehow). The Eagles won 13-12 on a Josh Allen misfire on a two-point conversion. Kevin Patullo and this offense have a peculiar knack for not sticking to what works and/or flat-out not executing.
The 49ers put up 40 points in a win over the Bears. Philadelphia mustered 15 points against Chicago’s defense. The New York Giants held the Eagles to 17 points, while mustering ten points against Green Bay.
Even the indefensible “tush push” hasn’t been working. Simply put, the Eagles’ offense isn’t a powerhouse that should be feared.
Seattle’s offense is objectively better than Philadelphia’s, which is why I believe the 49ers’ defense will look much better on Sunday. The real key to this game will be the difference between the 49ers’ offense and Philadelphia’s very stingy defense. No matter how inept the Eagles’ offense can be on Sunday, they will still score points (not 30). If the offense has to scratch and claw for every positive gain like Saturday against Seattle, the 49ers will lose.
Furthermore, on late downs, the Eagles rank 25th in the NFL with a success rate of 40.69%. That number is just ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders. The Eagles’ fourth-quarter success rate ranks 27th in the NFL. The Eagles have scored 30-plus points four times against the Raiders, Giants, Rams (blocked FG TD pushed them over), and Tampa Bay. If the 49ers offense catches flak for scoring 30 and 40 points against sub-par defenses, I’d say the Eagles deserve the same...
