The Falcoholic
The Cincinnati Bengals have become the face for high-scoring shootouts in the NFL, but it’s the Atlanta Falcons that are the next team to potentially put up “Star Wars numbers” in 2025.
Late Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay coined the phrase “Star Wars numbers” during an interview discussing the Peyton Manning era of his franchise. The Hall of Fame quarterback, surrounded by an elite supporting cast, put up video game numbers in order to carry the Colts to wins, and eventually bring the city of Indianapolis its first Super Bowl title.
While the Falcons are still far from a finished product, the offense features enough firepower that fans should be expecting plenty of points to be scored in 2025.
The supporting cast starts with an ascending star at the running back position in Bijan Robinson. Despite so much uncertainty around the passing game in recent seasons, Robinson has managed 3,350 yards from scrimmage and 23 total touchdowns.
Robinson’s value goes far beyond being a workhorse running back. He’s a consistent part of the passing game with 158 targets over his first two seasons, and also brings significant value as a pass-blocking option. In fact, Los Angeles Rams starter Kyren Williams was the only running back in the NFL with more pass-blocking snaps than Bijan last season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Atlanta was fifth in the NFL in rushing DVOA in 2024 according to FTN Fantasy, and that efficiency on the ground should continue with Robinson this year. However, it’s the passing game that should see a significant uptick in effectiveness in 2025 with Michael Penix Jr. becoming the full-time starter ahead of aging veteran Kirk Cousins.
Penix was able to see the field at the tail end of last season, and his No. 1 goal appeared to be to just let it fly. Outside of Anthony Richardson, Penix had the highest average depth of target among quarterbacks last season, averaging a 10.2 aDOT.
While his aggregate numbers don’t stand out from last season, Penix was still generating explosive plays and putting the Falcons offense in better situations for scoring opportunities than his predecessor in Cousins. According to NFELO, Penix averaged a full 0.1 EPA per dropback more than Cousins last season, tucked between Super Bowl quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the league-wide standings with 0.17 EPA per dropback.
That’s solid play from Penix, but an offseason of time spent as the presumptive QB1 should have him even better prepared to handle some of his shortcomings he faced in 2024, particularly when under duress.
According to PFF, Penix’s passer rating plummeted to 20.4 when passing under pressure last season, completing 9-of-26 passes with zero touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.
For a QB who doesn’t have top-tier mobility, Penix needs to have a better plan to handle pressure in his sophomore season. Fortunately, he has plenty of safety blankets in the passing game, including Robinson out of the backfield.
The pass-catching corps has some solid options in Darnell...
