Niners Nation
Two weeks in the NFL is a literal blip during a 17-game regular season. Last season, through two weeks, the New Orleans Saints had the top offense in the NFL. We all know how last season ended for them. Having said that, there are surprises in the first two weeks of 2025 and trends that couldn’t be predicted. For instance, the Cincinnati Bengals (yes, Joe Burrow got injured during Week 2) and the Philadelphia Eagles are 30th and 32nd in the NFL in explosive play rate.
Who could have seen that coming? Another team in the bottom five in explosive play rate (15+ yard runs and passes) is the San Francisco 49ers at number 28. The bigger shock is that the 49ers are tied for last in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans in explosive run percentage at 0.0%.
I’m here to present the case for why the 49ers offense is about to pop, and this week will be the first week of multiple weeks of Kyle Shanahan and his offense beginning to roll in both areas. Let’s get it out there: Mac Jones and Christian McCaffrey are tied for the longest run of the season, with 13 yards, which is surprising, to say the least. Shanahan’s offense is designed for explosive gains from the run game.
So, what is the issue? Well, it’s not one answer. The lack of explosive runs is a combination of execution in blocking from the offensive line and other blockers, Christian McCaffrey still rounding into shape in 2025, and the amount of two-high safety looks, which are designed to flow into stopping the run. Defenses are presenting odd-man fronts and two-high looks, but it’s not something new to Shanahan and how defenses prepare to slow down his offense.
What about Arizona? Why am I predicting an offensive improvement against Arizona, who sit at number five in the NFL with a 50.9% two-high look? The 49ers’ passing offense in Week 3, with Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, will be the key to unlocking breathing room in the run game. Even if Max Melton and Will Johnson play on Sunday, Melton has a better chance than Johnson, both are dealing with injuries that knocked them out of their Week 2 matchup, and they will not be 100 percent and spry. Nickel corner Garrett Williams went to IR. That’s Arizona’s top three corners missing.
Another positive development is the 49ers’ success passing against two-high safety looks. The idea is to limit explosive passing plays with two safeties and keep everything in front of them, but the 49ers are looking to attack the middle of the field. Attacking single high safety looks in the passing game has been their most successful defensive look to exploit (0.23 EPA, ninth in the NFL), but against two-high looks, the 49ers have posted a 0.14 EPA. Passing successfully will push the two safeties further from the line of scrimmage.
So, I’ve used some nice analytics to paint the picture for this offense...
