New England Patriots - NESN.com
Oddsmakers may remain dubious of the New England Patriots, but several ESPN analysts believe they’ll finish the weekend with a playoff berth.
The Patriots can clinch a postseason appearance with a win over the Baltimore Ravens on “Sunday Night Football.” Mike Vrabel’s 11-3 squad enters the road games as underdogs against the 7-7 Ravens, who aim to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North.
In a panel of four ESPN betting analysts, all of them picked New England to cover the spread and hit the moneyline with a Week 16 victory. Pamela Maldonado explained why the Patriots are poised to bounce back from last Sunday’s 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
“This comes down to pressure response,” Maldonado wrote. “Drake Maye has excelled in every game over the past two months despite facing pressure-heavy looks, while Baltimore has struggled to turn defensive pressure into negative outcomes. The Ravens generate modest sack and turnover production relative to how often they face obvious passing downs, but in a game in which both quarterbacks will be challenged, the Patriots have shown stability under stress, making the points valuable.”
ESPN’s projection model favors a different outcome. The network’s Matchup Predictor gives the Ravens a 59.8 percent win probability, and ESPN recently ran a simulation of the rest of the season that included a 19-17 Baltimore victory.
Playing the game at M&T Bank Stadium will sway those forecasts, but the Ravens are 3-5 at home while the Patriots are the NFL’s only undefeated team (6-0) on the road. And for all the talk about New England’s schedule, Baltimore is 1-5 against teams that currently have a winning record.
Sunday’s game starts at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
