Why ESPN Analyst Predicted Patriots Playoff Win Over Chargers

The New England Patriots begin their postseason with a first-round tilt against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. An ESPN analyst has them advancing beyond their opening challenge.

Bill Barnwell predicted a 21-13 Patriots victory over the Chargers. He noted that No. 7 seeds are 1-9 in the first round under the NFL’s expanded playoff bracket, but the Chargers are only 3.5-point underdogs at Gillette Stadium.

Barnwell also previewed a “movable force versus resistible object” battle between New England’s struggling red-zone defense and Los Angeles’ unproductive red-zone offense. The Patriots could improve with a returning Milton Williams, and the Chargers will hope to have rookie running back Omarion Hampton available, but Barnwell has concerns about the road team’s injured offensive line.

“The Chargers are a completely different offense without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt,” Barnwell wrote. “Slater has missed the entire season because of a ruptured patellar tendon. The Chargers have still been third in the NFL in EPA per play with Alt (ankle) on the field, but they have been 26th without him. Missing Hampton for much of that stretch didn’t help, but the offense has been disjointed and struggled to find an identity for most of the year.”

The Houston Texans earned a 20-16 victory over the Chargers in Week 17 after C.J. Stroud threw 75- and 43-yard touchdowns in the opening quarter. Barnwell thinks Drake Maye should learn from that outcome and exploit the Chargers’ secondary deep early and often.

“Drake Maye’s ability to attack downfield is the way to beat this Chargers defense, as C.J. Stroud showed with his first-quarter outburst two weeks ago,” Barnwell wrote. “Maye led the league in Total QBR on deep passes, and while the Chargers were the fourth-best pass defense by EPA per play against short and intermediate passes, that fell to 16th when teams attacked them with deep balls.”

Barnwell has the Patriots advancing further with a 24-17 win over Houston in the AFC Divisional Round. However, he predicted a Buffalo Bills victory over New England in the AFC Championship Game to set up a Super Bowl matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.