Why Cowboys fans are allowed to be optimistic about 2026

Right now, every single one of the 32 NFL teams is excited about what they’re doing, and every single fan base believes that if things work out just the right way, their team will make the playoffs.

This is the time of year where hope springs eternal and everybody feels optimistic about the new season. As Cowboys fans, we collectively found reasons to be optimistic about a defense that’s been completely revamped – after all, it can’t get any worse, or can it? We’re still telling each other why the players the Cowboys added via trade and free agency are better than the players we lost. We’ve convinced ourselves that this year’s rookie class will have an immediate impact and are even rooting for UDFA tight ends to make the roster.

To varying degrees, almost every Cowboys fan will acknowledge that he or she is perhaps just a little bit more optimistic about the 2026 Cowboys right now than an objective look at the facts warrants. But so what?

At this point in time, other teams are no different. Or do you think Eagles fans, bless their little kelly-green hearts, are sitting there going “stop all this postseason talk, you are way too optimistic“? Training camps are still more than a month away, and the opening game is even further away, but all 32 teams are going into the season hopeful that This Could Be The Year.

Because in the parity-driven NFL, last season doesn’t matter. Fact is, the ‘competitive balance’ in the league gives each team hope of finishing at the top of the standings regardless of its record the previous season. Sometimes for no other reason than that other teams in the division are even worse. In the NFL, this is called parity.

• The churn factor: It’s not a big secret anymore that the playoff field churns by about 50% from year to year. Since the league moved to a 14-team playoff format in 2021, an average of six new teams made the playoffs every year. Only once in that five-year span, in 2024, did that number dip to four teams. This means it’s highly probable that six teams that did not make the playoffs in 2025 will make the playoffs in 2026.
• The rebound factor: Every year since 1990 there have been a handful of teams that had a losing record in the previous season, yet still made the playoffs the following season. Since 2021, the league has averaged almost five rebound teams per year.
• Worst-to-first factor: The rebound factor doesn’t only affect teams who narrowly missed the playoffs in the previous year. In four of the last five years, at least one team went from “worst-to-first” in its division. Last year, three teams made the improbable transition from worst to first: The Patriots rebounded from 4-13 in 2024, won the AFC North in 2025 with a 14-3 record, and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. The Bears improved from 5-12...