ClutchPoints
The Kansas City Chiefs have their backs against the wall coming into Week 12 of the NFL season after a crippling loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11. Now, the Chiefs are sitting at just 5-5 on the season, their worst start in a decade, and are largely out of the AFC West race with the Broncos sitting at 9-2.
Now, according to most analytics sites, the Chiefs’ playoff chances sit just above 50%, but those numbers will continue to tank if they fall to 5-6 with a loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
The Colts have been one of the big surprises of the season so far in 2025, racing out to an 8-2 record through 10 games. Daniel Jones is having a resurgent season for Indianapolis and Shane Steichen and company are chasing the No. 1 seed thanks to an MVP-type season from Jonathan Taylor.
Despite the differing records of the two teams, the Chiefs are favored coming into the weekend. Can they deliver on that and get back above .500 after Week 12?
The first priority for anybody trying to slow down this Colts offense is stopping the run. It’s much easier said than done to slow down Jonathan Taylor, who is currently having a historic season that has him in talks for both the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year awards. Taylor is already up over 1,100 yards on the season, nearly 200 more than anyone else in football.
On a per-play basis, the gulf between the Colts star and everyone else gets even wider. Taylor is currently generating 0.16 EPA per rush, the equivalent of a top-five passing game in the NFL this season. James Cook of the Buffalo Bills is in second place at 0.04 among players with at least 100 carries, so there is a gigantic margin between Taylor and the rest of the league.
The Chiefs had the task of slowing down Cook back in Week 9, and they did a half-decent job. The star Bills running back racked up 114 yards on the ground, but it took him 27 carries to get there. If the Chiefs can hold Taylor to a similar clip, they will have their chances to get off the field.
The season-long numbers for Kansas City are a little bit less encouraging. the Chiefs are a slightly below-average defense when it comes to EPA per rush allowed and like to play with light boxes, so Taylor will have chances to get going on Sunday.
Daniel Jones has been one of the stories of the NFL so far this season, but his last few games have shown some of the bad tendencies he showed that got him booted out of New York.
The new Colts quarterback only has three games this season where he finished with negative EPA, and two of them were his last two games against the Steelers and Falcons....
