Why a new head coach isn’t enough to turn a 7-win team into a contender again

The Cowboys are looking for a new head coach, but that hardly guarantees them anything.

Many Dallas Cowboys fans are at least moderately excited about the prospect of getting a new coaching staff assembled. But the historical record of coaching changes on seven-win teams does not bode well for the 2025 Cowboys, especially given how prone this front office is to thinking that whatever changes (or the absence of changes, see 2024) they made one season will automatically elevate the franchise to contenders the next season.

Between the introduction of the salary cap in 1994 (to use a random but relevant data point in league history) and 2024, 20 teams fired/exchanged their head coach after a seven-win season, and there’s some sobering stuff to be gleaned from looking at the historical record of those coaching changes.

• Only five of the 20 teams (25%) improved to a winning record the following year.
• Four teams (20%) either remained stuck at seven wins or improved to a Jason Garrett signature eight-win season the following year.
• 11 teams (55%) finished the following season with a worse record, despite the coaching change. Yikes!
• And it gets even worse for the Cowboys: Only three teams made the playoffs with a new coach after their seven-win season, and only one team (the 2013 Chargers) won a playoff game after a seven-win season and a coaching change.

Here’s the full data set.

When you fire the head coach (or let him walk, or don’t renew his contract, or whatever narrative floats your boat), it’s often because the entire organization failed, and not just the one guy at the top of the coaching organization chart. When you’re looking to fix that organization, you’re going to have to look at more than just the coaching. Because if you don’t, history suggests you’ll quickly find yourself back in the position you wanted to get out of in the first place.

But while firing Mike McCarthy was the right decision (even if long overdue), it combines with Dak’s injury (and the many other injuries) to provide the Cowboys with waaaay too many convenient excuses for everything that went sideways with the Cowboys last season, and thus provides carte blanche for the Cowboys to continue doing business as usual elsewhere.

In Dallas, the general thinking seems to be that changing out the coaching staff and getting key players back healthy should be enough to (again) be a Super Bowl contender despite the evidence above to the contrary. And as such the Cowboys front office is probably okay with thinking that

• an offense that averaged just 21 points with its star quarterback in eight games in 2024 just needs to establish the run a little more and everything will fall into place.
• a defense that ranked 28th in defensive passer rating and 31st in points allowed just needs a second year of Mike Zimmer fairy dust to become a Top 10 unit.
• a defensive line that ranked...