Daily Norseman
Both sides are talking but terms may be difficult to agree upon
Now that the Minnesota Vikings have wrapped up extensions for Byron Murphy Jr., Andrew Van Ginkel, and Josh Oliver, the one most obvious player up for an extension is Josh Metellus.
Metellus has been a hybrid third safety in Brian Flores’ scheme, lining up mostly in the slot, although he’s lined up at linebacker, off the edge, as an interior gap blitzer, even a few snaps at outside cornerback. And he hardly ever came off the field last season for the Vikings, racking up over 1,000 defensive snaps the last two seasons. Metellus also earned near-elite grades from PFF in run defense and tackling last season. He’s also a team captain and a vocal leader on defense and a core special teamer. Metellus would also seem the logical candidate to replace Harrison Smith at strong safety when he retires.
All that argues for an extension well north of $10 million/year for Metellus.
But there are some competing factors that argue for a more modest deal or potentially putting off an extension until the end of the season, although both sides are talking now and have an interest in concluding an extension soon.
The first competing factor that argues for a lower extension amount is that while Metellus was the king of versatility on defense, in the most highly valued defensive trait- pass coverage- Metellus has been in steady decline the last two seasons according to PFF. His coverage grade last season was just 52.2, which is below average. The main issue with Metellus is that he’s really a strong safety in build and measurables which makes covering slot receivers more of a challenge for him and can be a matchup disadvantage in some cases. Metellus’ main issue in coverage is that he gives up a lot of yards-after-catch (YAC). In fact, he’s given up the most YAC among all safeties in the league the past two seasons and by a wide margin. Last season he gave up 381 YAC, 120 more than the second-worst safety, and in 2023 he gave up 532 - over 250 more than the second-worst safety. He also gave up the most receiving yards overall among safeties the last two seasons.
Metellus’ issues in coverage leads to the second competing factor when it comes to the dollar value of his services: how many snaps will he play? Since signing a two-year, $8 million extension in 2023, Metellus has played over 1,000 snaps each season (and got a $1.5 million bonus for playing over 90% of snaps last season) but will play as many snaps this season?
The Vikings could be more comfortable playing Byron Murphy Jr. in the slot more often with Mekhi Blackmon back which could reduce Metellus’ snap count. Murphy was the 9th highest graded starting cornerback in the league the last half of the 2024 season according to PFF.
You could also argue that Metellus is really more of a safety/linebacker...
