Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots are headed to Buffalo this week for their second division game of the season. A result similar to the first one — a 33-27 win in Miami — would be a major success for the team of head coach Mike Vrabel, but also a massive surprise given its status as 8.5-point underdogs.
The Patriots pulling off the upset will depend on their ability to play a fairly clean game in all three phases, something they have only managed to do sporadically this season.
“I think that certainly it will be a huge challenge,” Vrabel said. “The last time they lost at home was 14 games ago. We’re well aware of that and have to do a lot of really good things to give ourselves a chance. They’re, playing good football, they’re playing clean football, they’re not beating themselves and they’re doing a nice job in all phases.”
However, as a look at our head-to-head comparison shows, New England does have potential to come away with a win.
Patriots pass offense vs. Bills pass defense: No pass defense in the NFL has surrendered fewer yards (503) or a lower net yards per attempt number (4.5) than the Bills’ four weeks into the season; the unit is also ranked seventh in EPA per play (-0.023). That being said, it has not gone up against a murderer’s row of quarterbacks either, with the exception of Week 1, when Lamar Jackson posted an impressive 0.53 EPA per dropback. Drake Maye is no Lamar Jackson yet, but he is at least one step above those other QBs the Bills have played against so far. If he can bring his A-game, and his supporting cast holds up its end of the bargain too, Buffalo’s pass defense will be in for a battle. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Bills pass offense: This is all about one man: Josh Allen. The Bills’ starting quarterback is a definitive problem due to his ability to make plays with his arm and his legs, and he is once again among the most prolific players in the league this season. That does not mean New England’s pass defense is necessarily in for a tough ride against the reigning league MVP — in fact, it actually matches up fairly well with Buffalo from an 11 on 11 perspective, particularly with Christian Gonzalez back in the fold — but until it shows it can stop him, Allen has earned getting the benefit of the doubt. | Edge: Bills
Patriots rushing offense vs. Bills run defense: On paper, the Patriots should have the edge in this matchup. Their running back trio of Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson has clear potential to do some damage on the ground; the execution last week against Carolina was mostly on point; and the Bills rush defense has not looked particularly sharp this season. Consistency remains a major concern, though, which is why this battle should...
