Mile High Report
Can we use analytics to find and draft the next great Bronco running back?
While I looked at some data regarding drafting a good and durable RB a few weeks back, I didn’t go into the same depth that I did with tight ends, tackles and IOL guys. So I figured that I would do that since draft week is upon us and most think that the Broncos will be using at least one early pick on a running back.
For those who haven’t looked at the other parts of this series, the NFL and AWS recently launched a draft score for all players in the draft based on their “athleticism” and their “production”. Here is a very interesting discussion of it. TLDR - it’s complicated, but it’s better than previous college player draft grades.
So let’s focus on the running backs since the Broncos need an upgrade there as Javonte Williams was one the worst primary backs in the NFL last season despite having a great OL. The correlation for all 403 running backs between production and draft score is 0.76. That is quite strong whereas the correlation between athleticism and draft score was only 0.436. In other words, the draft score is more about how well you produced in college and less about how well you did at the combine.
Being the nerd that I am, I also pulled all the All-time RAS data from Kent Lee Platte for RBs and created a plot of Athleticism vs RAS. That is below. I was able to find RAS and ATH for 338 RBs (2003-2025).
The R squared for this lower than every other position I have looked at so far. Zooming in on the elite corner you get this with name call-outs. Plenty of these were really good NFL RBs, but plenty were total failures in the NFL (if they even ever made a team).
The six guys in red are all available in the draft this year. Their draft scores are all over the place though.
The table above shows the 23 RBs who got a draft score of 87 or above (2003 to present). In this draft only Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skattebo are on the list. Treyveon Henderson just missed the cut with a draft score of 86 - due mostly to his limited production (83) while at OSU. This was a result of sharing the load with another primary RB (they were both RB1).
Let’s look now at some of the guys who had low draft scores (70 or below) who have been good NFL RBs and then some of the busts with high draft scores.
There are 107 RBs with a draft score of 70 or lower. Six of them are in this draft. So of the 101 I pulled the best in terms of NFL careers. The table is below.
I count 13 successes: Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Devonta Freeman, Justin Forsett, James Conner, Rex Burkhead, Bilal Powell, Dameon Pierce,...
