Buffalo Rumblings
We’re approaching the point in the season where the Buffalo Bills, like every NFL team, are settling in to where they’ll be for the duration of the year. That’s not to say perfectly consistent, but well-enough known to have an idea of what to expect in each game. I say approaching because there are still teams that are all over the map.
I use these plus (+) and minus (-) charts a ton and usually after four or five games there’s a decent amount of meaning starting to shake up. For example, here’s the Bills’:
I think this mostly makes sense to Bills Mafia. The offense is firing pretty well (though imperfectly) and still averaging more than a touchdown more than typical for the league this season. Pretty much every metric on that side of the ball is doing very well.
On defense, it might come as a shock to some that the Bills are average for the most part, not lousy. For many (like me), I understand that they’re average and my dismay is because I want good to great. It’s also no shock that the passing game looks incredible while the run game looks terrible. Heck, we even all know that these two things are related.
Let’s check in on the Falcons.
From this data it looks like the Falcons are good at getting yards on offense, but struggle to convert them to points with a massive issue in the red zone. The interception rate suggests either a good offensive line, mobility from Michael Penix Jr. or a little of both.
On defense, they look really good on this chart. They’re a tiny bit prone to giving up rushing yards on a per-play basis, and they’ve so far given up a couple more fourth-down conversions than might be expected. Still, overall this looks really solid.
I believe at this point I have a reputation for preferring metrics that measure per drive. But for these two teams those averages bear out similarly, so there’s no reason to regurgitate the same arguments. There’s one more graphic I’d like to share though with everyone as we prepare for the Falcons, courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Now do you see what I mean? Which Falcons team will the Buffalo Bills be playing for Monday Night Football?
Let’s toss out Week 1 results, which are often wacky, and focus on the other three games. The Minnesota Vikings’ data isn’t supportive of an offensive juggernaut, but even with that six-point performance they’re trending a bit above average. Atlanta’s defense had four turnovers and six sacks. I don’t want to face that. Making this even more wild is that the game was close nearly the entire way, with nothing but field goals until the Falcons finally scored a touchdown with under three-and-a-half minutes to go in the fourth quarter. So it’s not like an early fluke or two put Atlanta up and Minnesota felt forced to abandon their game. This...
