Turf Show Times
Can a number one pick take his team to the Super Bowl and still be considered a bust? Caleb Williams, the NFL’s least accurate quarterback of 2025 according to Next Gen Stats, is two wins away from seriously challenging that theory.
Although Williams is the toast of the league this week because of a league-leading seventh fourth quarter comeback to beat the Packers on Saturday, it is how the Bears quarterback plays for the rest of the game that the Los Angeles Rams should be happy about. Because when the game isn’t on the line, Williams is worse than J.J. McCarthy.
And even when the game is on the line, Williams might be rolling out to his left to throw a hail mary to an area of the field hoping to get lucky…when he had Colston Loveland wide open to the flat on the field side on his first read and didn’t even take the shot.
Because even though Williams is clearly one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, and has been the starter for a Bears team that has won 11 games*, he may not fully understand yet what it would take to actually be a good quarterback and it’ll be interesting to see in the coming years if he’s willing to accept his faults and get better.
*The last 5 Bears QBs to win at least 11 games: Mitch Trubisky, Jay Cutler, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, and Jim Miller
Remember those guys? Because Chicago moved on from all of them shortly thereafter.
Despite Caleb setting the franchise record for passing yards (in a 17-game season with a franchise record number of pass attempts) and limiting his turnovers to just seven interceptions, the Bears might actually be leaving a lot of points on the field because of him.
What if I told you that in the category that many analytics fanatics call the gold standard for accuracy (completion percentage over expectation), Williams ranked below McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Cam Ward? And all 32 other qualified quarterbacks?
At -6.9% CPOE, Williams was significantly behind McCarthy at -5.2% in 32nd place and Penix at 3.2% in 31st.
If you prefer traditional stats, then fine: Williams had a completion rate of 58.1% in his second season. He’s not a rookie. Whereas quarterbacks like Penix and McCarthy are relatively inexperienced because of injury or age or failing to get onto the field, Williams was a three-year starter in college and has started every possible game in the NFL. That’s five consecutive years as a starter.
Caleb has thrown more passes in the NFL than McCarthy has thrown in college and the NFL combined. And yet you could argue that McCarthy — derided, criticized, and benched — actually finished the 2025 regular season stronger than Williams did; he actually won more games with the Vikings since the start of December than Williams has won with the Bears, including the playoffs.
Keep in mind that not...
