Big Blue View
One of the most exciting things about the start of an NFL season is the anticipation of new players and what they will bring to the team. For veterans who have newly joined a team through trades or free agency, we already know a lot about what we’re going to get. Rookies, though, are a different story, since we’ve never seen them perform against NFL competition.
It’s reasonable to expect a Round 1 pick to contribute right away. Day 3 picks are a different story, yet fans sometimes agonize about them contributing as well, even though there’s a reason they were still on the board on Day 3. Our opinions about what should happen once the season begins mean nothing, though. (“What’s wrong with Shane Bowen, only playing Abdul Carter for 38 snaps?” was a common refrain on X this past Monday.) All that matters is what does happen.
You may or may not have confidence in what the Giants’ front office and coaching staff are doing. It’s better to look at the entire league and see what the collective “wisdom” of the 32 teams is about how much rookies should be used right off the bat. It depends on many things – how high the rookie was drafted, whether a given player was drafted into a position of strength or need, his health coming out of training camp, how quickly he adapts to the pro game, etc.
Here’s a fascinating diagram by Anthony Reinhard showing every single 2025 draft pick and what that player did in Week 1 (go to the tweet to see the full range):
It’s tough to read unless you zoom in, but the details aren’t the point. The color coding tells you everything you need to know about how players drafted in different rounds are used by their teams at the start of the season. The details of course will vary from season to season, but with 32 teams the general behavior should be fairly consistent from year to year. Here’s what we learn:
