Big Blue View
And will his move to the Giants help him?
There is a wide variety of opinions about whether the New York Giants are poised to show tangible improvement this season or experience the latest in a decade-plus full of disappointments. There are many facets to this question (22 in fact, not even counting special teams), but we all know that quarterback play leads the list.
Let’s leave Jaxson Dart out of this discussion - no one knows how long it will be before Brian Daboll sees him as being NFL-ready, and there is no way to project his NFL success or lack thereof. The other two quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, do have a track record, and we can look at it, especially last season’s, to understand a bit better who they are at this stage of their careers. Wilson is the expected starter but it won’t be a shock if Winston sees snaps this year.
For this purpose, I’m going to utilize the Sumer Sports player statistics database. One cannot isolate specific players, so creative sorting is required, and it doesn’t always work perfectly. Its attractiveness, though (other than part of it not being behind a paywall), is that it breaks down quarterback stats situationally in many different ways, allowing us to get a better feel for each QB.
First, let’s look at the basic stats. Specifically, we’ll compare 2024 Wilson and Winston to 2024 Daniel Jones. All three quarterbacks started for roughly half the season, so their sample sizes aren’t all that different:
Expected points added (EPA) per play is considered by many to be the best overall metric of quarterback play. For reference, the NFL leaders in EPA per play in 2024 were Josh Allen (0.31) and Lamar Jackson (0.28). All three former and present Giants’ QBs had similar, slightly negative EPA per play, i.e., they all had an approximately neutral effect on their team’s point scoring but slightly hindered it. Not much of an endorsement for 2025.
Looking further at total EPA separated by passing and rushing (scrambles + designed runs), we see that Wilson hurt his team a little more when he took off with the ball (-7.59) than when he passed it (-3.71). This is the narrative on Wilson - stubbornly looking for the big play and taking negative plays when he might have found a shallow target. Winston on the other hand was a lot like Daniel Jones: Both used their legs to positive effect but cost their teams dearly when throwing the ball - Winston by offsetting a decent number of touchdown passes with almost as many interceptions, and Jones, with only a modest number of INTs but an almost equally modest number of TDs.
Of course, quarterback play isn’t independent of the rest of the offense and the coaches. Nick Falato had a great analysis of how it affects Russell Wilson. Pittsburgh last year threw primarily to George Pickens and Calvin Austin, while Cleveland’s main...
