Big Blue View
It matters for a GM and head coach on the hot seat
It’s still possible that the New York Giants may make a draft trade or sign another free agent in the coming weeks, but speculating over the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft will probably dominate the conversation until the evening of April 24. What should the Giants do with that pick?
Never say never, but let’s assume that between Tennessee and Cleveland, Cam Ward will be off the board when the Giants pick, and even though Mason Graham and Ashton Jeanty are great prospects, the Giants will not take either one that high. That will leave the Giants with two of three very different choices from among Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and Abdul Carter.
If you’re a GM or a head coach, you’d like to always take the long view. After two consecutive embarrassing seasons, though, the Giants’ future has to be now. That’s not necessarily the best way to make decisions, but it’s the reality they find themselves in. Is going offense or defense the right move? And regardless of your answer, what is Hunter? Even SB Nation writers can’t agree on that last one.
One way to look at the problem is to decide whether offense or defense wins games these days in the NFL. Historically it was said that the team that wins the turnover battle prevails. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, now the head coach of the Bears, says that things have changed:
Of course Johnson, an offensive coach, would say that, but in today’s NFL passing does seem to be the name of the game. What do the stats on wins and losses have to say? Mike Sando of The Athletic looked at that:
So the answer is simple - do both. Easier said than done, though, since you have to put the ball at risk to get a high EPA (expected points added) pass. For this purpose, I use ESPN’s pass EPA numbers. EPA is calculated in several different ways by different analysts, but it generally values explosive plays more than short passes, passes that increase the chances of getting a first down depending on down and distance, successful passes in situations that affect game outcomes, and success against better defenses.
What do the Giants’ individual 2024 season games tell us about why they went 3-14? Was it more the turnovers or more the passing EPA? Let’s look at their three victories:
Cleveland: Both teams lost 2 fumbles and there were no interceptions by either team. Daniel Jones won the passing EPA battle over Deshaun Watson, 7.7 to -0.9.
Seattle: The Giants and Seahawks each lost one fumble and there were no interceptions. Jones had a higher passing EPA (5.2) than Geno Smith (3.2).
Indianapolis: The Colts lost a fumble and had 2 passes intercepted, while the Giants had no turnovers. Drew Lock had an 8.2 passing EPA, while Joe Flacco’s was only 3.9.
Now...
