Gang Green Nation
Tonight, the New York Jets will face off against the Miami Dolphins in a battle of two 0-3 teams. I have to imagine this was not what ESPN was expecting when they scheduled this game for a primetime game in the first month of the season.
I would guess based on the record of the two teams that fans of each fanbase would mostly expect their team to beat what they view as a comparably worse team. But what does Fanduel think based on their gambling lines (as of Sunday at about 8PM)? As a reminder, I am not discussing this in order to encourage a bet, but rather because I figure the amount of data and resources at Fanduel’s disposal makes them more qualified to estimate the outcome of games than any of us.
To start, they have the money line set at +132 for our New York Jets, meaning you can bet $100 and win an additional $132 if they win. This positions them as an underdog with about a 44% chance of victory.
In line with that relative “toss up” betting line, the spread is set for +2.5, meaning that they expect the Jets to lose by a field goal. Beyond that, they have the over/under set at 44.5 meaning that they expect a relatively high scoring affair in the range of 24-21 Dolphins.
For me, the general estimate seems about right. I could see paths for either team to win but I’d expect it to be close either way. A final score of 24-21 in either direction strikes me as about right.
What do you think? Where does Fanduel have it right and wrong?
