Blogging The Boys
This season, the Dallas Cowboys have the fifth toughest schedule in the NFL. In recent discussions about the Cowboys’ strength of schedule, opinions have been divided about whether a soft or a tough schedule is more conducive to playoff success.
Proponents of a soft schedule usually argue that being well rested and healthy as a result of a softer schedule is an advantage going into the playoffs. And then there’s a school of thought arguing it’s better playing tougher opponents, because your team will be battle tested entering the playoffs – you’ve beaten good teams and as a result, your team and individual players have improved and your overall confidence has increased.
Today, we move beyond strength of schedule and look at quality opponents, and whether they have any bearing on playoff success.
Before moving to quality opponents, we need to address a pre-salary cap narrative that still pops up from time to time: The idea that it’s tougher to make the playoffs in a highly competitive division than in a cupcake division, and once you do make the playoffs, you’re more likely to go far.
But in the 20 seasons from 2006 to 2025, only nine of the 20 Super Bowl winners (45%) hailed from one of the top three divisions based on win percentage. That means 55% came from the bottom three divisions by win percentage. And this trend stretches beyond Super Bowl winners, as only 22 of the 40 conference champions (55%) since 2006 came from the top three divisions by win percentage.
There’s no merit to the idea that playing a tougher division makes your own team tougher – and vice versa.
Another way to look at how tough a given schedule really is, is to look at the number of quality opponents a team has had to face. Quality opponents are teams that had a winning record at the end of the season.
ColdHardFootballFacts.com compile ‘Quality Standings’, a ranking which shows the record of every team in the league against quality opponents. Here’s why they do that:
“Strip away the dead-weight detritus of games played against poor and mediocre opponents, and you get a much clearer picture of the true nature of a team.”
Looking at quality opponents tells you which teams had cakewalk schedules and which teams are truly battle-tested. And looking at just the results from 2025 is quite instructive.
Leading the standings are the Super Bowl-winning Seahawks with a 6-2 record against quality teams. The Patriots on the other hand, who played the easiest regular season schedule since the 1999 Rams – and went through several injury-plagued teams to reach the Super Bowl – were 1-2 against quality opponents.
Of the nine teams with a .500 or better record against quality teams, eight made the playoffs, with only the Falcons missing out.
The Dallas Cowboys were 1-6-1 against quality opponents last year, with their sole win coming against the Eagles in Week...
