Buffalo Rumblings
At a family Fourth of July party on Saturday, when, naturally many of the conversations I was part of centered around the Buffalo Bills, I was posed this straightforward (annual) question by one of my cousins — h/t John — that I want to pose to you, Rumblings readers.
— What are the worst and best-case scenarios for the Bills in 2026?
Here’s what I told John before devouring Chiavetta’s chicken and a ridiculous amount of sides on American’s 250th birthday.
“Barely make the playoffs at 9-8”
Injuries are impossible to predict and can obviously change things drastically, so I typically never factor them into season predictions, regardless of how negative or positive said predictions ultimately are. Just feels silly to do so.
In a worst-case scenario, the Bills daunting schedule proves to be very taxing on the new defensive scheme with a litany of new players in new roles under coordinator Jim Leonhard.
I don’t think anyone would be stunned if Buffalo’s defense incurs growing pains at the beginning of the season particularly against offenses like the Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams in Weeks 2-5, which would subsequently put added pressure on the offense to be close to perfect to win those games — much like what transpired in essentially all of the McDermott-era playoff exits.
(I have essentially no worries, even in a worst-case scenario situation, about Buffalo’s offense.)
Now, of course, the Bills have the firepower to dig themselves out of an early-season hole, but a sub .500 September and October would all but officially eliminate the team from the No. 1 seed race and squarely narrow Buffalo’s focus to one of the AFC’s three wild-card spots.
I’m usually not a “look at the schedule” analyst, because despite ample offseason time spent evaluating rosters, once NFL season’s begin, chaos ensues. A few teams everyone was sure would be bad ultimately play well and vice versa.
HOWEVER, four games in November and December against the Dolphins and Jets should be quality opportunities for the Bills to right the ship if they’re scrounging for wins down the stretch.
I couldn’t venture all the way to “they miss the playoffs” in a worst-case scenario simply because of the presence of Josh Allen.
He’s the best player in the NFL, who averages more touchdowns per game (2.35) than anyone in the history of the league.
We’ve seen him elevate those around him for many, many years now.
If the defense is a borderline disaster in Year 1 of Leonhard era, even in a worst-case scenario, I have the utmost confidence in Allen willing the team to nine wins and the final playoff spot in the AFC. And they’d again be a frightening wild-card team no one would want to play.
“Winning the Super Bowl”
Before I give this answer and before I said it out loud on the Fourth, I must say, John laughingly reminded me when...
