Field Gulls
Happy Halloween, Happy Second Half, and Happy Playoff Leverage time everyone!
That’s right, the Seattle Seahawks begin their back-9 against the Washington Commanders, and it’s officially far enough to consider how these games impact the 2025 playoff picture.
And what a great week to start, as both the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers have some of the biggest potential swings of the week.
If you’re new to playoff leverage, the gist of it is an attempt to gauge what a team’s probability of making the playoffs will be after the upcoming game – win or lose.
Week 9 promises some good stuff for the NFC West.
I mean, except for the Arizona Cardinals.
Anyway, the Seahawks face a 65% chance of making the playoffs with a loss, and a 87% shot at the postseason with a win. The 49ers are from 43% to 72%, and the Los Angeles Rams’ swing is from 68% to 87%.
That 39% differential for San Francisco is the highest in the entire NFL. A win keeps their season alive, while a consecutive loss puts them in a pretty deep hole. Good thing they have to go up against the…*checks notes…. New York Giants without Cam Skattebo.
To their own end, Seattle’s 22% swing is towards the most, but more than that, a win puts them among the 10 most likely teams to make the playoffs.
We’re just now starting to see some separation in the NFL, with both a true upper echelon and the seven or so teams now fighting for the top draft spot.
The NFC West schedule has turned particularly interesting this season, with teams like the Commanders and Minnesota Vikings falling off the cliff from 2024.
Lastly, there’s a chance for something pretty fascinating. Of the six actual NFL teams in both West divisions, only the Kansas City Chiefs play a team above .500. If they win, and the other teams hold serve, both NFC and AFC West could be the only divisions with three 6-win teams, and all six would have at least a 70% chance of making the playoffs.
It’s going to be a slugfest to the finish line.
