Stampede Blue
Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com****, Pro Football Focus** and the** nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
Going into Week 5, the Raiders’ defense ranked 19th in points allowed per drive. So they weren’t great, but they were far from the bottom of the barrel. The Colts’ offense, however, rolled over them as if they were the worst unit in the league. Indy racked up 24 first downs on 26 series, translating to a season-high 92.3% Drive Success Rate. That’s not just a season best for the Colts—it’s the highest mark by any team this year.
In previous weeks, I’ve noticed a worrisome trend of reaching the red zone and then settling for field goals. Not this week, though—the Colts posted a 100% red zone touchdown rate. Yet, they accomplished this feat with only 317 yards of total offense.
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%The offense claimed the #1 spot in scoring this week with a ridiculous 5 points per drive—the highest mark by any team this year. Not surprisingly, Indy was at or near the top of the charts in several key metrics: #1 DSR, #4 EPA per play, #3 Success Rate, and #6 Play Conversion Rate, #1 3rd down conversion rate.
Ironically, the Colts ranked only 15th in yards per play, which perfectly illustrates what they’ve done all year—methodically moving the chains rather than relying on big plays. They lost time of possession, though—so I guess the offense must have secretly been terrible.
On the year, after adjusting for opponent, the Colts’ offense ranks 3rd—just behind Detroit and still a fair distance from Buffalo.
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/YdThe team passing stats include plays from Anthony Richardson and even the Tyler Warren flea-flicker attempt, so some of the numbers are slightly diluted compared to my QB-only metrics. Still, I have Indy as the 5th-best passing team in terms of EPA per dropback, thank to another stellar week from Daniel Jones.
The 8th-best Success Rate was driven by the 6th-best pass play conversion rate, but similar to total yards, their net yards per dropback ranked only 14th. Again, this highlights Jones’ ability to consistently pick up first downs without relying on huge chunk plays.
For the season, the passing offense—adjusted for opponent—ranks 7th best in the league.
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