Stampede Blue
Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com****, Pro Football Focus** and the** nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
The first drive of the game looked like it was going to be a long day for the Colts. The Raiders opened with a 29-yard completion and marched 83 yards to the Colts’ 3-yard line before a timely Tyquan Lewis sack set up 3rd-and-14 and Las Vegas eventually settled for a field goal.
However, after that opening drive, the Raiders’ offense stalled, as the Colts’ defense kept them off the scoreboard for the next six consecutive possessions. The Raiders managed a respectable 72.4% Drive Success Rate with 21 first downs, but most of their production came during garbage time—and they still managed to come away with only 3 additional points from it.
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%Point-wise, it was the best defensive performance of the week. The Colts held the Raiders to the lowest yards per play and the 3rd-lowest EPA per play.
Metrics like Success Rate (15th) weren’t as impressive, but playing with a commanding lead had a lot to do with that. Also, the Colts did give up three first downs via penalties, but they made up for it with two takeaways.
On the year, the defense jumps 6 spots to 15th.
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/YdThe Colts held Geno Smith to the 4th-lowest EPA per dropback, with two interceptions playing a big role in that. It also didn’t help the Raiders that they posted the lowest yards per dropback—partly due to being sacked four times for a loss of 38 yards, but also because Geno was forced into the 3rd-shortest pass attempts, and the receivers’ 13th-shortest YAC couldn’t make up for it.
This performance pushes the Colts’ defense all the way up to 9th best against the pass after adjusting for opponent.
Mouseover definitions: wgt RSR, adj RSR, YDS, CAR, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, EPA/c, Game script kept the Raiders from running the ball much, and when they did, they didn’t get much value from it. The Colts held them to the 10th-lowest rush play conversion rate and the 11th-lowest EPA per carry.
The Raiders did manage to convert 3 of 4 rushing third downs, but when accounting for game situation, Las Vegas...
