Stampede Blue
Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
The Colts’ offense kept rolling in Week 3, racking up 26 first downs and posting an 84.6% Drive Success Rate, which highlights just how easily they’ve been able to move the ball down the field. They also improved in the red zone, converting 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
One drive ended with something called a punt, and apparently there’s a player on the team whose sole job is to handle that kind of play. Weird.
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%There isn’t much to analyze here—there’s no hidden secret behind a 41-point performance. The Colts led the league in Points per Drive, ranked 2nd in Drive Success Rate, 2nd in yards per play, 1st in EPA per play, and 3rd in play success rate. They simply executed well. I know — right?!
Three highly efficient games have vaulted the Colts to #1 in Points per Drive so far this year. However, when adjusting for opponent defenses, they slip to #4. With only three weeks of data, that adjustment is still a small sample, but it will grow more meaningful as the season progresses.
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/YdDaniel Jones delivered another stellar performance, driving the passing offense to the 3rd-best EPA efficiency and the 2nd-best Passing Success Rate. He did it without taking a single sack, which helped elevate his yards per dropback to 3rd best. The big gains translated directly into first downs, giving the Colts the 3rd-highest pass play conversion rate.
There’s really not much to complain about. While his red-zone performance has been poor overall, Week 3 was a step in the right direction. He currently ranks #1 in deep passing efficiency, #3 under pressure, and #1 outside the red zone. That combination has produced the league’s most efficient passing offense—though it’s worth noting that this doesn’t account for strength of opponent. On an adjusted basis, the team drops to #6.
Mouseover definitions: wgt RSR, adj RSR, YDS, CAR, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, EPA/c, The Colts’ ground game grabbed the #1 spot in rushing success this week. Jonathan Taylor scored three touchdowns and added three more first downs on just 17 carries. Third downs were...
